Overview: Activity in the capital markets is subdued today, ahead of tomorrow's FOMC meeting conclusion and the ECB meeting on Thursday. The MSCI Asia Pacific equity index fell for the third consecutive session. European bourses are heavy after the Stoxx 600 posted an outside down day yesterday. Today would be the fifth consecutive decline. Selling pressure on the US futures indices continues after yesterday's losses. Australia and New Zealand bonds played...
Read More »Dollar Starts the Week Bid ahead of the FOMC
Overview: Equities, bonds, and the dollar begin the new week on a firm note. Japanese, Chinese, Australian, and New Zealand equities advanced in the Asia Pacific region. Europe's Stoxx 600 is snapping a three-day decline, and US futures are 0.25%-0.35% higher. The US 10-year yield is a little softer at 1.48%. European benchmark yields are mostly 1-2 bp lower, and near 0.71%, the UK Gilt's yield is at a three-month low. The dollar is rising against all the major...
Read More »FX Daily, December 6: Semblance of Stability Returns though Geopolitical Tensions Rise
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.26% to 1.041 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 6(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The absence of negative developments surrounding Omicron over the weekend appears to be helping markets stabilize today after the dramatic moves at the end of last week. Asia Pacific equities traded heavily, and among the large markets, only South Korea and Australia escaped unscathed...
Read More »FX Daily, December 02: Calm Surface Masks Lack of Conviction
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.09% to 1.0587 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 2(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The downside reversal in US stocks yesterday seemed to accelerate after the first case of the Omicron variant was found in the US. In itself, it should not be surprising, but perhaps, what was especially disheartening is that the person had been fully vaccinated. The S&P 500...
Read More »Fragile Calm Returns and Powell’s Anti-Inflation Rhetoric Ratchets Up
Overview: Into the uncertainty over the implications of Omicron, the Federal Reserve Chairman injected a particularly hawkish signal into the mix in his testimony before the Senate. These are the two forces that are shaping market developments. Travel restrictions are being tightened, though the new variant is being found in more countries, and it appears to be like closing the proverbial barn door after the horses have bolted. Equities are higher. The MSCI Asia...
Read More »Pessimistic Omicron Assessment Squashes Risk Appetites
Overview: A pessimistic assessment offered by the CEO of Moderna shattered the fragile calm seen yesterday after the pre-weekend turmoil. Risk appetites shriveled, sending equity markets lower and the bond markets higher. Funding currencies rallied, with the euro and yen moving above last week's highs. The uncertainty weighs on sentiment and makes investors question what they previously were certain of. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell over 1% before the weekend...
Read More »Sentiment Remains Fragile
Overview: The fire that burnt through the capital markets before the weekend, triggered by the new Covid mutation, burned itself out in the Asian Pacific equity trading earlier today. A semblance of stability, albeit fragile and tentative, has emerged. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up about 1%, led by real estate, information technology, and energy. US index futures are trading higher, with the NASDAQ leading. Benchmark 10-year yields are firmer. The US 10-year Treasury...
Read More »Covid Strikes Back
Overview: Concerns that a new mutation of the Covid virus has shaken the capital markets. Equities are off hard, and bonds have rallied. In the foreign exchange market, the Japanese yen and Swiss franc have rallied. While there may be a safe haven bid, there also appears to be an unwinding of positions that require the buying back of the funding currencies, which is also lifting the euro. The currencies levered from growth, the dollar-bloc and Scandis are...
Read More »Turkey gets a Reprieve before US Thanksgiving, but Capital Strike may not be Over
Overview: The dramatic collapse of the Turkish lira was like an accident one could not help look at, but it was not an accident, but the result of a disregard for the exchange rate and compromised institutions. The lira was off around 15% at its worst yesterday, before settling 11.2% lower. After falling for 11 sessions, it has steadied today (~2.7%) but the capital strike may not be over. On the other hand, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand delivered the 25 bp...
Read More »FX Daily, November 9: Falling Yields Give the Yen a Boost
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.09% to 1.0587 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 9(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Reports that the Fed’s Brainard was interviewed for the Chair helped soften yields a bit, not that they needed extra pressure, on ideas she is more dovish than Powell. In turn, the lower yields saw the yen rise to its best level in nearly a month and led the major currencies higher...
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