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Switzerland, still on the monitoring list

Summary:
Switzerland meets two of the US Treasury’s three conditions for being deemed a ‘currency manipulator’.The US Department of Treasury has just published its semi-annual report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies. The main news was the inclusion of India on the department’s monitoring list, together with five other countries (China, Japan, Korea, Germany and Switzerland).The Treasury has established three criteria for a country to be deemed a currency manipulator: a bilateral trade surplus of over USD 20 billion with the US, a current account surplus larger than 3.0% of GDP, and persistent, one-sided intervention including net purchases of foreign currency, conducted repeatedly, totalling in excess of 2% of an economy’s GDP over a 12-month period.Switzerland fulfils two of

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Switzerland meets two of the US Treasury’s three conditions for being deemed a ‘currency manipulator’.

Switzerland, still on the monitoring list

The US Department of Treasury has just published its semi-annual report on International Economic and Exchange Rate Policies. The main news was the inclusion of India on the department’s monitoring list, together with five other countries (China, Japan, Korea, Germany and Switzerland).

The Treasury has established three criteria for a country to be deemed a currency manipulator: a bilateral trade surplus of over USD 20 billion with the US, a current account surplus larger than 3.0% of GDP, and persistent, one-sided intervention including net purchases of foreign currency, conducted repeatedly, totalling in excess of 2% of an economy’s GDP over a 12-month period.

Switzerland fulfils two of the three criteria for being considered a currency manipulator. The country has a current account larger than 3.0% of GDP and central bank interventions in the foreign exchange market have exceeded 2% of GDP over a 12-month period.

However, the US Treasury seems again to have a relatively conciliatory view of Switzerland. It encouraged Switzerland to “adjust macroeconomic policies to more forcefully support domestic economy” and to “publish all intervention data on a higher frequency basis”. In this regard, the Swiss National Bank seems not to have intervened in the FX market so far this year based on the weekly variation of deposits.

For that reason, and given the small size of its economy, Switzerland is unlikely to be a major target of the US Administration.

Nadia Gharbi
Nadia Gharbi is economist at Pictet Wealth Management. She graduates in Université de Genève, Les Acacias, Canton of Geneva, Switzerland Do not hesitate to contact Pictet for an investment proposal. Do not hesitate to contact Pictet for an investment proposal. Please contact Zurich Office, the Geneva Office or one of 26 other offices world-wide.

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