SNB & CHF

The most important thing to appreciate is that the market has moved to price not one but two cuts next year.  The first is priced into the September Fed funds futures and the second is in the Dec Fed funds futures.  This I in response to weaker than expected data that have elevated recession fears.  The Atlanta Fed GDPNow puts Q2 growth at -2.1%.  Banks have revised down their forecasts, but none of the 59 economists in the Bloomberg survey have forecast a negative...

Part I of II, by Claudio Grass, Hünenberg, Switzerland It wouldn’t be an exaggeration to argue that private property rights, as understood by classic liberal thinkers, by those who embrace Austrian economic theory and by all member of an enlightened society, are not only the cornerstone, but also the last defense of human civilization and the Western way of life in particular. Nothing stands a chance without this premise. No prosperity can ever come...

Welcome to the American corporate-debt market of 2022. Often the only risky bonds that are being issued are the legacy debts of a now ancient-seeming time—when interest rates were low and a recession was unthinkable. Elsewhere, the high-yield market has almost ground to a halt. A paltry $83bn of risky debt has been issued so far in 2022, 75% less than in the same period last year. A sharp rise in interest rates in the first half of this year has cooled credit...

What is “money”? “Money” is a claim on the essentials of life. Ration cards are claims on essentials. Many people expect “money” will soon be tied to commodities. Agreed. It’s called a ration cardthat grants the holder the right to buy a specific quantity of essential goods at a specified price. This right is a form of “money” directly tied to the value of commodities. Ration cards are the only fair way to distribute essentials in times of chronic scarcity. Markets...

Sommaruga (left) during the opening of a water power plant at Nant de Drance in the Swiss mountains last month. © Keystone/Laurent Gillieron Energy Minister Simonetta Sommaruga has warned of possible shortages of natural gas in Switzerland during the winter months. She said the government prepared made plans to prevent energy blackouts due to a drop in Russian gas imports in the context of war in Ukraine. But it was impossible to guarantee sufficient supplies for the...

Konsum oder Sparen? Das ist die grosse Frage. Bild: imago images / YAY Images Die Finanzierung von Wohneigentum und das Sparen fürs Alter sind Bestandteile der Finanzplanung. Manche Sparerinnen und Sparer verknüpfen Hypotheken mit Vorsorgeprodukten. Was hier bei steigenden Zinsen zu beachten ist.  Angetrieben durch die Inflation respektive deren Folge, der Geldpolitik der Notenbanken, sind die Hypothekarzinsen in der Schweiz 2022 deutlich gestiegen. Das...

Most commentary on the Supreme Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization—which overturns Roe v. Wade—has focused on the decision’s effect on the legality of abortion in various states. That’s an important issue. It may be, however, that the Dobbs decision’s effect on political decentralization in the United States is a far bigger deal. After all, the ruling isn’t so much about abortion as it is about the federal government’s role in abortion....

Well, that was a mess. The Richmond Fed’s Manufacturing Survey was at first released before being taken back. Initially reported as a plunge in the headline number, it was quickly scrapped once the statisticians remembered they had just discontinued their average workweek component – but had kept a zero in its place when tallying the overall PMI. With it, the PMI was originally calculated to have gone from bad in May (-9) to horrible in June (-19). Refiguring the...

Last year, just as it was becoming increasingly clear that price inflation was mounting, Jerome Powell repeatedly denied there was any reason for concern. He called inflation “transitory.” A few months later, he admitted it was not transitory, but denied it was “entrenched.” Then, by late 2021, he admitted price inflation was getting out of control but still took no action of any consequence. Through it all, the Powell plan was repeated delay and opposition to any...

Inflation in Argentina is far worse than neighboring countries. It has only one cause: an extractive and confiscatory monetary policy—printing pesos without control and without demand. Original Article: “How Money Printing Destroyed Argentina and Can Destroy Others” The most dangerous words in monetary policy and economics are “this time is different.” Argentine politicians’ big mistake is to believe that inflation is multicausal and that everything is solved...