SNB & CHF

This week's terrorist attacks in Brussels call into question the role of a country's security forces to protect its citizens. In Switzerland, reforms to the army have people asking whether it can protect key installations from terrorist threats or catastrophes if troop numbers are cut. (SRF/swsissinfo.ch) The Swiss army will be reduced in size but will receive more funding in the next four years. The numbers of available troops will be reduced from 140,000 to 100,000, setting a goal of...

A few short hours stand in the way of the long holiday weekend for many.  The capital markets are retracing the recent moves.  This means equities and commodities are lower.  It means bonds are firmer and the dollar stronger.  The markets response to the ECB and FOMC recent meetings was to extend trend moves.   However, this entire week has been the counter.   The foreign exchange market illustrates this point.   The euro is recording a lower high for the first consecutive session and a...

24.03.2016 09:15  - FSO, Economic structure and analyses (0353-1602-90) Bankruptcy Statistics 2015 Increase in the number of bankruptcies Neuchâtel, 24.03.2016 (FSO) – The number of bankruptcy proceedings opened in 2015 rose to 13,016 cases, a 9.9% increase compared with 2014. The Lake Geneva region was particularly affected by this trend. Overall, this upsurge is due mainly to bankruptcies of persons registered in the Commercial Registry. Over the same period the number of debt collection...

The euro's rallied shortly after the ECB announced numerous monetary measures that in their totality were more than expected.  Many saw this as proof that monetary policy had lost its effectiveness, and central banks have lost credibility.    Recall summer of 2012.  The market anticipated another round of asset purchases by the Federal Reserve.  The euro rallied from about $1.2050 in late July to $1.30 on September 13 when Bernanke announced the open-ended QE3.  The euro peaked two days...

Of the many rules prescribed for investment success, the most golden of all is to cut your losses before they get too big. As this bearish market is teaching us, it is a rule that is always best kept to! The speculator and dancer (!) Nicolas Darvas gave us ideas how to set the stop-loss. If you read this Newsletter regularly, you will already have appreciated its importance. You may have also witnessed the peaking and catastrophic falls of such market favorites as Weight Watchers (WTW)...

The UK referendum is three months away.   Three-month options are a common benchmark for various market segments; from speculators, to fund managers to corporations.  Events over the past week have raised the risks that the UK votes to leave the EU. The market has responded forcefully today, and even if you only follow the spot market, what is happening in the options market is significant.  First, three-month volatility has jumped 2.6 percentage points to 14.5%.  It appears to be the...

Construction is nearly complete on an innovative, multi-family house in canton Zürich that can collect and store enough solar power to fulfil the energy needs of its tenants. (SRF/swissinfo.ch) The project has been aptly named “The House of the Future”, and it is claimed to be the world’s first energy self-sufficient apartment block. The dwelling is being built in Brütten, and by springtime it will be ready to house nine families. The construction of a self-sufficient house poses the...

An ill-conceived strategy undermined by mismanagement and bad fortune is increasing the risks that the UK votes to leave the EU in June.    Nearly everything that could, has gone wrong for UK Prime Minister Cameron. While many investors have anticipated the UK would remain in the EU, the increased risks will likely weigh on sterling, with potential for sharp losses.  Sterling is already the worst performer among the majors here in Q1.  It is from 3.3% which is more than twice the loss of...

Until last September, the Federal Reserve seems to play down the market-based measures of inflation expectations, preferring the surveys that showed views were anchored.    At the September 2015 FOMC meeting where the Fed had been expected to tighten until the August turmoil, officials cited among other considerations, the decline in market-based measures of inflation expectations.   There are many problems with using the spread between conventional Treasuries and the inflation-linked...

A series of attacks at Brussels airport and metro casts a pall over the market.  The attacks come as Europe prepares what for many will be a long holiday weekend.  Gold, the dollar and yen seem to have been the beneficiaries.   Bonds are generally firmer and equities lower.   However, in late morning activity in London, the markets began stabilizing.  Sterling remains the weakest of the major currencies.  It is nearly as much as it was yesterday (0.7%) against the dollar.  Osborne has...