In 2012, the American Taxpayer Relief Act (ATRA) established, for the first time, a permanent estate tax and gift tax exemption. The exemption is the amount an individual can pass on at death without paying estate taxes. The legislation set the exemption at $5 million per person, indexed for inflation. Five years later, Congress decided the exemption was not large enough and passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 (TCJA), which increased the lifetime exemption...
Read More »Sam Bankman-Fried FTX’ed Up
You can listen to the audio version of this article here. Last week the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, which was recently valued at $32 billion, imploded. While the tragedy continues to play out, let’s summarize what has happened so far: FTX is a cryptocurrency exchange, co-founded by Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried. FTX enables customers to make leveraged bets (as high as 20 to 1) on cryptocurrencies. More often than not, it takes loans to make loans. FTX would make these...
Read More »We need to talk about curve inversions (plural) going nuclear.
Unprecedented inversion in the German market got more unprecedented. Eurodollar futures are just epically upside down. Even the Treasury yield curve has gone nuclear, with the 10-year benchmark rate well below the Fed's RRP. Huge warnings everywhere, but why? What's the message? Let's go through them. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com...
Read More »Markets are Less on Edge as the Darkest Scenarios seem Less Likely
Overview: The situation in central Europe is still intense but it appears top US, European and Polish officials are more reluctant than some market participants to attribute the darkest of intentions and paint extreme narratives. The Polish zloty has recovered around 1.3% today and other central European currencies are also trading firmer to lead the emerging market currencies. The US dollar is broadly weaker against the G10 currencies. The large Asia Pacific bourses...
Read More »Residential property prices increased by 1.2% in 3rd quarter 2022
15.11.2022 – The Swiss residential property price index (IMPI) rose in the 3rd quarter 2022 compared with the previous quarter by 1.2% and reached 114.6 points (4th quarter 2019 = 100). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, inflation was 6.3%. These are the results from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). In the 3rd quarter 2022, in comparison with the previous quarter across Switzerland both the prices of sin-gle-family houses (+1.4%) and those of...
Read More »Why “Greedflation” Isn’t Real
Even as price inflation slows and we move past June’s peak, progressives continue to push the concept of “greedflation”—that this year’s price inflation is caused by corporate greed and price gouging. This is inaccurate, based on bad economics, and it blames a consequence of the problem rather than the problem itself. If we want to address the real issues in the economy and avoid similar pain in the future, we need to get serious and drop “greedflation” from the...
Read More »Barclays forecasts EURCHF trading around parity for the next few quarters
This is via the folks at eFX. For bank trade ideas, check out eFX Plus. For a limited time, get a 7 day free trial, basic for $79 per month and premium at $109 per month. Get it here. Barclays Research discusses CHF outlook and targets EUR/CHF around 0.97, 0.97, 0.98, and 1.00 by end of Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 of next year respectively. “We expect CHF to remain at the higher end of its historical range, with EURCHF trading around parity for the next few quarters. CHF...
Read More »Economic Calculation and the Great Reset
A grand plan is advanced by the World Economic Forum (WEF). Its name, “The Great Reset,” conveys the scope of this undertaking. Among its many audacious goals, it will “offer insights to help inform all those determining the future state of global relations, the direction of national economies, the priorities of societies, the nature of business models and the management of a global commons.” That is clearly all for the good. But what are the particulars? A number of...
Read More »BlackRock’s Fintech Bets Span Lending, Wealthtech, Crypto and More
BlackRock, one of the world’s largest asset managers, has been actively investing in the fintech industry over the past decade, participating in large rounds of financing across a broad range of segments, from payments and lending, to wealthtech and cryptocurrency, a new analysis by fintech-focused research firm WhiteSight shows. The report, which delves into the investment firm’s fintech moves, shows that BlackRock has been a prolific fintech investors, dipping its...
Read More »We really need to talk about "inflation", as Alan Greenspan was trying to way back in ’96.
All anyone heard him say was "irrational exuberance." If only everyone had listened to all the rest which was vastly more important - and relevant to today. More slowing in October 2022 prices, producer this time, shows why we need to talk about inflation, deflation, and irrationality...at the Fed level. Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP https://www.eurodollar.university https://www.marketsinsiderpro.com...
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