Tag Archives: US economic growth

Near-term recession risks remain limited, and a dovish Fed offers supportWe are reducing our 2019 US growth forecast to 2.2%, from 2.4% previously, mostly to account for the partial government shutdown. New York Fed president John Williams has stated that the impact of the shutdown could reach 1% of Q1 GDP.Despite the lower forecast, we remain confident about the underlying fundamentals of the US economy and still regard near-term recession risks as limited. Furthermore, US GDP tends to be...

Historical data suggest that, instead of boosting consumer spending, lower oil prices can harm the US economy’s growth prospects and persuade the Fed to stall its tightening plans.The link between oil prices and the health of the US economy has changed considerably this decade, especially as a result of the domestic energy sector boom. The US produced a  record high of 11.7 million barrels per day last week, versus only around 5 million in 2008.The epicentre of this oil boom, linked to...

Head of Asset Allocation & Macro Research and Chief Strategist with Pictet Wealth Management, Christophe Donay shares his thoughts on the perennial relationship between innovation and economic growth.When analysing the current economic regime and assessing the potential for a shift in that regime, it is vital to take innovation into account. Demographic trends and productivity gains are commonly identified as the two main drivers of real economic growth. And innovation is a critical...

US GDP growth in the third quarter was good, and momentum may be firmer than we expected. There are upside risks to our 2018 growth forecast.US GDP grew 3.0% q-o-q SAAR in Q3 2018, pushing up the y-o-y print to 2.3%. In a word, the US economy is doing fine, although it still lacks sparkle. The impact of August hurricanes was barely perceptible. IT investment was particularly solid, rising 8.6% y-o-y, and consumer spending growth was tepid (up 2.6% y-o-y), with some softness in...