Tag Archives: newsletter

Part I of II Almost two decades ago, German economist Horst Siebert coined the term the “Cobra effect” to describe the real-world consequences of “well-intentioned” government interventions that go awry and produce the exact opposite results from what they aim for. The term was inspired by an incident that took place in India during the British rule, when the authorities tried to reduce the number of deadly cobras in Delhi by offering a cash reward to citizens for...

They say a week is a long time in politics – last week we discovered it’s a long time in a pandemic as well. We started the week anxiously watching the rising Covid cases in Europe, and wondering what new restrictions might be heading our way for Christmas. At the same time here in Geneva journalists were preparing for a special session of the World Health Assembly, swiftly followed by a ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organization (WTO). Both meetings were...

Stop me if you’ve heard this before: dollar up for reasons no one can explain; yield curve flattening dramatically resisting the BOND ROUT!!! everyone has said is inevitable; a very hawkish Fed increasingly certain about inflation risks; then, the eurodollar curve inverts which blasts Jay Powell’s dreamland in favor of the proper interpretation, deflation, of those first two. Twenty-eighteen, right? Yes. And also today. Quirky and kinky, it doesn’t seem like a lot,...

The pandemic is still with us as the year winds down and has not yet become endemic, like the seasonal flu.  Even before the new Omicron variant was sequenced, Europe was being particularly hard hit, and social restrictions, especially among the unvaccinated, were spurring social strife.  US cases, notably in the Midwest, were rising, and there is fear that it is 4-6 weeks behind Europe in experiencing the surge.  Whatever herd immunity is, it has not been...

Overview:  Into the uncertainty over the implications of Omicron, the Federal Reserve Chairman injected a particularly hawkish signal into the mix in his testimony before the Senate.  These are the two forces that are shaping market developments.  Travel restrictions are being tightened, though the new variant is being found in more countries, and it appears to be like closing the proverbial barn door after the horses have bolted. Equities are higher.  The MSCI Asia...

There was dancing in the streets when Social Security announced that 2022 checks will go up by 5.9%, the biggest Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) in 40 years. But now, the streets are empty and the cheering is gone. Most of that Social Security COLA will be eaten up by increases in Medicare. Medicare Part B, which covers doctor services and outpatient care, will go up by 14.5% which is the largest Medicare increase ever. This year the monthly premium for Medicare...

© Wolfgang Spitzbart _ Dreamstime.com According to poll results published over the weekend, 53% of those surveyed in Switzerland were in favour of making Covid-19 vaccinations compulsory, a percentage that rose to 69% for those working in the health sector, reported 20 Minutes. Overall, the percentage supporting compulsory vaccination was higher in German-speaking Switzerland (53.4%) than among French speakers (50.2%). The largest variation was across age groups....

Der Erfolg ist irgendwie auch zum Problem von Ethereum geworden. Der aktuell zweitwertvollste Cryptocoin des Marktes hat weiterhin Probleme mit den Transaktionsgebühren – die auch als ETH-Gas bezeichnet werden. Aufgrund der hohen Network-Nutzung sind diese Gebühren weiterhin zu hoch für die langfristigen Ziele des Projekts. Ethereum News: Ethereum will hohe Gas-Preise in Angriff nehmen Dem Kurs des ETH haben die hohen Gebühren allerdings nicht geschadet. Ethereum ist...

Capitalism vs. Freedom: The Toll Road to Serfdom by Rob Larson Zero Books, 2018, 233 pp. Rob Larson, who is a professor of economics at Tacoma Community College in Washington, does not agree with Mises, Hayek, Rothbard, and Friedman that the free market promotes freedom and prosperity and that socialism is the “road to serfdom.” That is an understatement, and you won’t find any understatements in this book. To the contrary, the book abounds in wild accusations. For...

Overview: A pessimistic assessment offered by the CEO of Moderna shattered the fragile calm seen yesterday after the pre-weekend turmoil.  Risk appetites shriveled, sending equity markets lower and the bond markets higher.  Funding currencies rallied, with the euro and yen moving above last week's highs.  The uncertainty weighs on sentiment and makes investors question what they previously were certain of.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell over 1% before the weekend...