Tag Archives: newsletter

If you need some evidence that the echo-bubble in housing is global, take a look at this chart of Sweden’s housing bubble. A funny thing often occurs after a mania-fueled asset bubble pops: an echo-bubble inflates a few years later, as monetary authorities and all the institutions that depend on rising asset valuations go all-in to reflate the crushed asset class. Take a quick look at the Case-Shiller Home Price Index...

A Swiss 50. What a beauty – © Hai Huy Ton That | Dreamstime.com The new 50 franc note, launched last year, was voted the best new bank note in 2016 by the International Bank Note Society, a society founded in 1961. Nearly 120 new banknotes were released worldwide in 2016. The Swiss 50 only narrowly beat the Maldive Islands 1000 Rufiyaa bill, Argentina’s 500 Peso jaguar, and the Royal Bank of Scotland’s 5 Pound first...

Neuchâtel, 28.04.2017 (FSO) – The Swiss nominal wage index rose by +0.7% on average in 2016 compared with 2015. It settled at 100.7 points (base 2015 = 100). Given a negative average annual inflation rate of -0.4%, real wages registered an increase of +1.1% (101.1 points, base 2015 = 100) according to calculations by the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Development of nominal wages to the consumer prices and real...

Summary: Rich people live longer than poor people in the US. This disparity undermines the progressive nature of Social Security. Disparity of income seems more important than the slowdown in growth in explaining why few US people are doing better than their parents at the age of 30. Americans do not like to talk about class.  Many like to think that there are no classes in the US and that sufficient hard work...

Summary Moody’s moved the outlook on Vietnam’s B1 rating from stable to positive. Nigeria’s central bank introduced a new FX window for portfolio investors. Moody’s moved the outlook on Romania’s Baa3 rating from positive to stable. Central Bank of Russia accelerated its easing cycle. Central Bank of Turkey delivered a hawkish surprise. Brazil’s lower house easily approved the labor reforms, but popular resistance is...

According to the headline TIC statistics, foreign central banks have in the past six months sold the fewest UST’s since the 6-month period ended November 2015. That may indicate an easing of “dollar” pressure in the private markets due to “reflation” sentiment. They are, however, still selling. In February 2017, the latest month available, the foreign official sector disposed of another $10.7 billion (net) after -$44.9...

From the official news release Interim results of the Swiss National Bank as at 31 March 2017 The Swiss National Bank (SNB) reports a profit of CHF 7.9 billion for the first quarter of 2017. A valuation gain of CHF 2.2 billion was recorded on gold holdings. The profit on foreign currency positions amounted to CHF 5.3 billion. The SNB’s financial result depends largely on developments in the gold, foreign exchange...

Swiss Franc EUR/CHF - Euro Swiss Franc, April 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates The ECB meeting and the press conference that follows it is the main event.  However, it has had to compete with the Bank of Japan and Riksbank meetings, as well as the further reflection of the tax reform proposals by the Trump Administration yesterday.  Also, after a misdirection over pulling out of...

Summary: Draghi confirms rate on hold and maintains easing bias. Growth risks are becoming more balanced. Inflation has yet to get on a sustained upward path. As widely expected, the ECB left its key rates and asset purchase plan intact. It reiterated its forward guidance that rates will remain at present levels or lower. Draghi was more confident about the economy, suggesting that the downside risks had...

Retail Debt Debacles The retail sector has replaced the oil sector in a sense, and not in a good way. It is the sector that is most likely to see a large surge in bankruptcies this year. Junk bonds issued by retailers are performing dismally, and within the group the bonds of companies that were subject to leveraged buyouts by private equity firms seem to be doing the worst (a function of their outsized debt loads)....