Tag Archives: FX Trends

1) Indonesia announced it will allow full foreign ownership in many local industries in an effort to boost foreign investment 2) The Thai military government called a referendum on the new constitution on July 31 3) Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party dropped its backing for candidate Wnorowski to join the MPC 4) The IMF is starting to warn Ukraine 5) Press reports suggest some slippage in Brazil’s fiscal consolidation efforts 6) Mexico’s Finance Minister Videgaray acknowledged...

After another difficult Asian session that saw the Nikkei fell 4.8% (12.3% on the week), the capital markets against have stabilized in Europe.  Equity markets are mostly higher, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 up nearly 2% led by energy and financials.    Oil prices are up a bit more than $1 a barrel though it still leaves Brent off almost $3 on the week and WTI off $3.6.  This follows yesterday's close, which was the lowest since 2003.  Talk that the drop in price is increasing pressure on...

After another difficult Asian session that saw the Nikkei fell 4.8% (12.3% on the week), the capital markets against have stabilized in Europe.  Equity markets are mostly higher, with the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 up nearly 2% led by energy and financials. Oil prices are up a bit more than $1 a barrel though it still leaves Brent off almost $3 on the week and WTI off $3.6.  This follows yesterday's close, which was the lowest since 2003.  Talk that the drop in price is increasing pressure on...

The conundrum that everyone is wrestling with is the euro and yen's strength given their negative interest rates and prospect for even lower interest rates.   The divergence of monetary policy, even if the Fed is on hold for the rest of this year and next, should be dollar-positive.   We have tried making sense of what is happening by separating the developments into two buckets.  The first bucket, and what we think is the medium and long-term driver is the divergence of monetary...

The conundrum that everyone is wrestling with is the euro and yen's strength given their negative interest rates and prospect for even lower interest rates.   The divergence of monetary policy, even if the Fed is on hold for the rest of this year and next, should be dollar-positive. We have tried making sense of what is happening by separating the developments into two buckets.  The first bucket, and what we think is the medium and long-term driver is the divergence of monetary...

The continued sell-off in global equities is the main driver of the capital markets.  It, along with the push lower in oil prices, are pushing core bond yields sharply lower.  The US 10-year yield is nearing 160 bp having begun the year above 225 bp.    The 10-year gilt yield is at a new record low of 130 bp.  It began the year near 195 bp.  The yield on the 10-year bund is also at new record lows today near 17 bp.  It had begun the year above 60 bp.  The only thing that saves the 10-year...

The continued sell-off in global equities is the main driver of the capital markets.  It, along with the push lower in oil prices, are pushing core bond yields sharply lower. The US 10-year yield is nearing 160 bp having begun the year above 225 bp.    The 10-year gilt yield is at a new record low of 130 bp.  It began the year near 195 bp.  The yield on the 10-year bund is also at new record lows today near 17 bp.  It had begun the year above 60 bp.  The only thing that saves the 10-year...

There are few industries that offer a picture glass window to see numerous macroeconomic forces as steel does.   Excess capacity, trade policy, and the yuan all intersect when looking at the steel industry.   Moreover, it also shed light on why the drop of energy and other commodity prices, such as iron ore, have not bolstered the steel industry, let alone the general economy, as many expected.   At the heart of the problem is that globally there is greater capacity to produce steel than...

There are few industries that offer a picture glass window to see numerous macroeconomic forces as steel does.   Excess capacity, trade policy, and the yuan all intersect when looking at the steel industry.   Moreover, it also shed light on why the drop of energy and other commodity prices, such as iron ore, have not bolstered the steel industry, let alone the general economy, as many expected. At the heart of the problem is that globally there is greater capacity to produce steel than...

After another soggy Asian session, European markets have begun on a firm note, and US shares are trading broadly higher in Europe as well.  Led by the beleaguered financial shares, and healthcare, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 2%.  Similarly, the peripheral bonds, including Portugal (though not Greece) are seeing a reprieve from the recent selling.  Spanish and Italian 10-year benchmark bonds are off 5-6 bp while the Portuguese yield is off 10 bp.  The yield on JGBS, bunds, gilts and...