Tag Archives: FX Trends

EM ended last week on a soft note, due to a variety of both external and internal factors.  Firm US data continue to support our call for resumed Fed tightening, and this gave the dollar a bit of a bid.  With the dollar gaining against the majors, this spilled over into generalized dollar gains vs. EM as well.  Weak data out of China this week poses a risk to EM, though we suspect that how China markets react will set the tone for the wider EM.Idiosyncratic EM risk remains in play too. ...

It seemed that it was only after Asian equity markets fell did reports begin suggesting disappointment with the G20 meeting.  The narrative followed the price action rather than the other way around.  Before that, at least, one newswire claimed China was the winner of at the G20 meeting.  Its currency policy was not criticized.  Many, including US Treasury Secretary Lew, welcomed China's clear communication and commitment to avoid a large depreciation of the yuan.  The final statement...

It seemed that it was only after Asian equity markets fell did reports begin suggesting disappointment with the G20 meeting.  The narrative followed the price action rather than the other way around.  Before that, at least, one newswire claimed China was the winner of at the G20 meeting.  Its currency policy was not criticized.  Many, including US Treasury Secretary Lew, welcomed China's clear communication and commitment to avoid a large depreciation of the yuan.  The final statement...

The year has begun on a tumultuous note.  The Nikkei, DAX and S&P 500 all gapped lower the first day of the year. However, heightened anxiety has calmed as the fire appears to have burnt itself out, and equities have moved higher over the past two week.    Three sources of stress have eased.  Investors are no longer taking their cues by what happens to Chinese stocks. Nevertheless, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites are posting small gains for the month of February, unlike...

The year has begun on a tumultuous note.  The Nikkei, DAX and S&P 500 all gapped lower the first day of the year. However, heightened anxiety has calmed as the fire appears to have burnt itself out, and equities have moved higher over the past two week.    Three sources of stress have eased.  Investors are no longer taking their cues by what happens to Chinese stocks. Nevertheless, both the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites are posting small gains for the month of February, unlike...

The position adjustment among speculators in the currency futures market were minor in the reporting week that ended February 23.  There was only one gross adjustment we regard as significant (more than 10k contracts).  The Mexican officials sprung a bear trap and forced speculators to cover.  There were 15.8k gross short peso in speculative hands that were bought back, leaving 83k contracts still short.   Despite the minor adjustments elsewhere, two patterns were clear.  First,...

The position adjustment among speculators in the currency futures market were minor in the reporting week that ended February 23.  There was only one gross adjustment we regard as significant (more than 10k contracts).  The Mexican officials sprung a bear trap and forced speculators to cover.  There were 15.8k gross short peso in speculative hands that were bought back, leaving 83k contracts still short.   Despite the minor adjustments elsewhere, two patterns were clear.  First,...

As systemic anxiety eased, the US dollar got better traction. The dollar-bloc currencies managed to hold their own as cross positions were unwound.    Major bourses posted gains for the second consecutive week.  With the recent advance, several markets, including the S&P 500, FTSE and Sweden, China, Korea, and Taiwan are now positive on the month.    The April light sweet oil futures had its highest weekly close this month.  More broadly, the CRB Index is nearly 7% off its February 11...

As systemic anxiety eased, the US dollar got better traction. The dollar-bloc currencies managed to hold their own as cross positions were unwound.    Major bourses posted gains for the second consecutive week.  With the recent advance, several markets, including the S&P 500, FTSE and Sweden, China, Korea, and Taiwan are now positive on the month.    The April light sweet oil futures had its highest weekly close this month.  More broadly, the CRB Index is nearly 7% off its February 11...

1) Indonesia announced it will allow full foreign ownership in many local industries in an effort to boost foreign investment 2) The Thai military government called a referendum on the new constitution on July 31 3) Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party dropped its backing for candidate Wnorowski to join the MPC 4) The IMF is starting to warn Ukraine 5) Press reports suggest some slippage in Brazil’s fiscal consolidation efforts 6) Mexico’s Finance Minister Videgaray acknowledged...