Tag Archives: FX Trends

I had the privilege of being interviewed by Anthony Crudele, who is trader at the CME, for the Futures Radio Show.   There was much to discuss.  The FOMC met yesterday.  The market, judging from the Fed funds futures see little chance of a June hike.  Economists think otherwise.  The Bank of Japan surprised many by not changing policy earlier today.  The yen rallied.  It seems counter-intuitive.  The yen rallied when the BOJ surprised at the end of January when it the rate on some...

One can appreciate the frustration in Tokyo. The Bank of Japan surprised the world by adopting negative rates in January and the yen rallied. Today it disappointed many by not easing, and the yen rallied. The BOJ next meetings in mid-June and like this week, the outcome of its meeting will be announced the day after the FOMC meeting. There is some idea that BOJ may be waiting for Abe’s new fiscal package and the G7 meeting Japan hosts next month. The FOMC’s statement yesterday did not...

The Bank of Japan defied expectations and its economic assessment to  leave policy unchanged.  The inaction spurred a 3% rally in the yen and an even larger slump in stocks.  The financial sector took its the hardest and dropped almost 6%.  The yen's surge helped underpin other Asian currencies, especially the South Korean won, which gained nearly 1%. At the end of January, the BOJ surprised by adopting negative interest rates for a small part of Japanese banks' excess reserves.  The yen...

The FOMC delivered a statement largely as expected.  It upgraded its assessment of the global economy by dropping the reference to risks.  It downgraded its assessment of the domestic economy by acknowledging that growth has slowed. Otherwise is general economic assessment remains little changed.  The labor market continues to improve, though growth in household spending has slowed.  Housing is stronger though fixed business investment and net exports have been soft (though not as soft as...

Under Kuroda’s leadership the BOJ has surprised the market a number of times, most recently with the move to negative rates at the end of January.   It is not that such a move, which has been tried by several European central banks, was without merit.  After all, growth and inflation prospects are not very encouraging.  The Bank of Japan’s one mandate, to raise inflation pressures, has remains as elusive as ever.  The BOJ has already pushed out the time that the inflation target will be...

The foreign exchange market is largely quiet as the market awaits fresh trading incentives and the FOMC statement later in the North American session.  The main exception to the consolidative tone is the Australian dollar, which is posting its largest loss (~1.7%) in a couple of months. The short-term market was caught the wrong-footed when Australia reported an unexpected decline in Q1 CPI.  The 0.2% decline contrasts to expectations for an increase of the same magnitude.  The...

My name is noMy sign is noMy number is noYou need to let it goDebt relief is noGerman stimulus is noECB  easing is noYou need to let it go  German Finance Minister Schaeuble appears to have taken on a new role:  chief obstructionist.  Schaeuble seems to be reveling in the fact that due to Chancellor Merkel’s immigration stance, and perhaps also because of her accommodation of Turkey, her public support has fallen below his.   According to a recent ZDF poll, Merkel is now the fifth most...

There is a debate.  On one hand is Summers, who argues that modern economies have entered an era of secular stagnation.  Full utilization of the factors of production and particularly capital and labor is not possible without stimulating aggregate demand in a way that facilitates bubbles.  The broad strokes of the argument can be found implicitly or explicitly in much of the commentary and economic analysis. The other side of the debate includes economists like Bernanke, and Rogoff and...

The gains the US dollar registered in the second half are being pared, but it is sterling’s strength that stands out.  It is difficult to attribute it to Obama’s push against Brexit, but there does appear to have been a change in sentiment. Sterling is the best-performing currency not only today but for the past five sessions, rising 1.25% against the US dollar to its best level since mid-February.  The next target is $1.4600 and $1.4670, the high from early February.  Sterling is rising...

We expect the FOMC statement this week to recognize the improvement in the global conditions that have been an increasing worry for officials over Q1.  At the same, time the soft patch of the US economy is undeniable. We suspect the Fed will look past the weakness of the US economy. The strength of the labor market, with weekly initial jobless claims at their lowest level since 1973 and continuing claims at their lowest level since 2000, it is difficult to get too negative the US...