Tag Archives: FED

Der Preisdruck in den USA schwächt sich erneut ab. Die Inflationsrate sinkt von 5 auf 4,9 Prozent. Die neuen Daten dürften die Spekulationen um den weiteren Kurs der Fed verstärken.

Mit Blick auf die kommenden Monate hält das Strategieteam von DJE mehr Vorsicht für angebracht. «Zwar sollten die Zinsen nicht weiter steigen, aber das Zinsniveau dürfte länger hoch bleiben als der Markt erwartet», heisst es im jüngsten Ausblick.

Die Banken in den USA haben zuletzt nicht mehr so viel Geld in Anspruch genommen wie in der Woche davor. Mit total 312 Milliarden Dollar sind die Kredite der Notenbank weiterhin höher als auf dem Höhepunkt der Finanzkrise im Jahr 2008, aber etwas unter dem Höchststand vom 22. März.

Die Märtke rechnen mit einer weiteren Erhöhung des Leitzinses in der heutigen FED-Sitzung um 25 Basispunkte. Aber angesichts der Probleme im US-Bankensektor sind Überraschungen nicht auszuschliessen.

Interview with Jeff Deist, President Mises Institute, Auburn, USA Division, friction and polarization have been on the rise in the West for at least a decade, but the escalation we saw during the “covid years” was especially worrying. Over the last year, this “worry” has become a truly pressing concern, even a real emergency one might argue, as inflationary pressures and an actual war were added to the mix of political and social tensions.   Going into 2023, there are many...

In mid-November, while the whole world was focused on the Ukraine crisis, the US midterms or whatever other “big story” the media decided was more important, a truly momentous shift took place in the global financial system. It might seem like a small step on the surface, but it has the potential to bring about a real and possibly irreversible sea change in the way we use money; or better said, the way it uses us.  As Reuters reported on the 15th of November, “Global banking...

A rate cut is on the cards, but communication will be more difficultThe Federal Reserve (Fed) is very likely to cut rates again on 18 September, a follow-up to its 25-basis point (bp) rate cut at its last meeting in July. The explanation is likely to again be the need to take “insurance” against growing downside risks to the outlook, including from President Trump’s erratic trade policy as well as weaker foreign growth.Fed Chairman Powell is unlikely to pre-commit to a third rate cut at this...

The downward tilt to bond yields means we have revised down our year-end forecast for the 10-year US Treasury yield.The impressive 52 basis points fall in the US 10-year Treasury yield to 1.5% made August a remarkable month.Unsurprisingly, the fall owed much to the fear that additional US tariffs on Chinese imports could prolong the global manufacturing recession, thereby increasing the risk of contagion to the services sector and hence sparking a general US slowdown. It seems that market...

We now see two additional Fed rate cuts, one in September and one in in October, versus our previous call of only one in September.We continue to expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates by 25 basis points on 18 September.Instead of staying put at its 30 October meeting, we now think the Fed will use it to announce a further 25 bps cut, mostly due to the recent escalation of US-China trade tensions.Those two additional cuts still fit within the Fed’s vaguely-defined ‘insurance’...

“Perhaps they think that they will exercise power for the generall good, but that is what all those with power have believed. Power is evil in itself, regardless of who exercises it.” – Ludwig von Mises, Nation, State, and Economy After the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy U-turn earlier this year and the central bank’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, mainstream investors and analysts believe that holding rates lower and for longer will help keep...