Tag Archives: FED

Interview with Jeff Deist, President Mises Institute, Auburn, USA Division, friction and polarization have been on the rise in the West for at least a decade, but the escalation we saw during the “covid years” was especially worrying. Over the last year, this “worry” has become a truly pressing concern, even a real emergency one might argue, as inflationary pressures and an actual war were added to the mix of political and social tensions.   Going into 2023, there are many...

In mid-November, while the whole world was focused on the Ukraine crisis, the US midterms or whatever other “big story” the media decided was more important, a truly momentous shift took place in the global financial system. It might seem like a small step on the surface, but it has the potential to bring about a real and possibly irreversible sea change in the way we use money; or better said, the way it uses us.  As Reuters reported on the 15th of November, “Global banking...

A rate cut is on the cards, but communication will be more difficultThe Federal Reserve (Fed) is very likely to cut rates again on 18 September, a follow-up to its 25-basis point (bp) rate cut at its last meeting in July. The explanation is likely to again be the need to take “insurance” against growing downside risks to the outlook, including from President Trump’s erratic trade policy as well as weaker foreign growth.Fed Chairman Powell is unlikely to pre-commit to a third rate cut at this...

The downward tilt to bond yields means we have revised down our year-end forecast for the 10-year US Treasury yield.The impressive 52 basis points fall in the US 10-year Treasury yield to 1.5% made August a remarkable month.Unsurprisingly, the fall owed much to the fear that additional US tariffs on Chinese imports could prolong the global manufacturing recession, thereby increasing the risk of contagion to the services sector and hence sparking a general US slowdown. It seems that market...

We now see two additional Fed rate cuts, one in September and one in in October, versus our previous call of only one in September.We continue to expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut rates by 25 basis points on 18 September.Instead of staying put at its 30 October meeting, we now think the Fed will use it to announce a further 25 bps cut, mostly due to the recent escalation of US-China trade tensions.Those two additional cuts still fit within the Fed’s vaguely-defined ‘insurance’...

“Perhaps they think that they will exercise power for the generall good, but that is what all those with power have believed. Power is evil in itself, regardless of who exercises it.” – Ludwig von Mises, Nation, State, and Economy After the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy U-turn earlier this year and the central bank’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, mainstream investors and analysts believe that holding rates lower and for longer will help keep...

“Perhaps they think that they will exercise power for the general good, but that is what all those with power have believed. Power is evil in itself, regardless of who exercises it.” – Ludwig von Mises, Nation, State, and Economy After the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy U-turn earlier this year and the central bank’s decision to cut interest rates for the first time in a decade, mainstream investors and analysts believe that holding rates lower and for longer will help keep...

Die Zinsen bleiben rekordtief: US-Notenbank Federal Reserve in Washington. Foto: Mark Wilson (Getty Images) Fast sechs Jahre ist es her, seit der einstige Finanzminister der USA und Topökonom Larry Summers im November 2013 in einer nur viertelstündigen Rede beim Internationalen Währungsfonds einem beinahe vergessenen Begriff wieder neue Prominenz verschafft hat: «Secular Stagnation» – Jahrhundert-Stagnation. Bekannt gemacht hat den Begriff Ende der 1930er-Jahre der US-Ökonom Alvin...

Im März schloss die EZB aus, die Minuszinspolitik vor 2020 zu beenden: Präsident Mario Draghi tritt in Frankfurt vor die Medien. Foto: Armando Babani (Keystone) Es ist wie ein Déjà-vu: Zentralbanken haben sich wieder einmal aufgemacht, die Weltwirtschaft zu retten. Als 2008 die globale Finanzkrise ausbrach, wurden die Zentralbanken zu den Protagonisten der Wirtschaftspolitik. Sie streiften ihre traditionelle Rolle als Schiedsrichter ab, der möglichst neutrale Rahmenbedingungen...

Heil oder Übel? Protest gegen Macrons Arbeiterreform im September 2017. (Foto: Keystone/Francois Mori) Vor gut fünf Jahren löste eine Studie ein mittelgrosses Beben unter Politikberatern in Europa aus. Ökonomen wiesen wissenschaftlich nach, dass Wirtschaftsreformen in den hoch verschuldeten und stagnierenden Ländern Südeuropas nichts bringen. Dabei pochten doch Regierungsvertreter und Mainstream-Ökonomen seit langem darauf, dass Länder wie Italien, Griechenland und Spanien...