Tag Archives: European politics

Voter turnout for European parliament elections surged across the continent, exceeding 50% for the first time in a quarter century and breaking the downward trend of the last four decades. However, differences in turnout across the EU have been substantial and a more fragmented parliament has emerged.Voter turnout was up for the first time ever and at 51%, higher than in any election since 1994. The results delivered a parliament with a pro-European majority, broadly in line with opinion...

Voter turnout for European parliament elections surged across the continent, exceeding 50% for the first time in a quarter century and breaking the downward trend of the last four decades. However, differences in turnout across the EU have been substantial and a more fragmented parliament has emerged. Voter turnout was up for the first time ever and at 51%, higher than in any election since 1994. The results delivered...

European Parliament elections, to be held between 23 and 26 of May, will be a key political event in Europe. However, we expect limited short-term impact, given the European Parliament’s limited ability to set Brussels’ agenda. European Parliament (EP) elections will be a key political event in Europe, a form of ‘midterm election’ in which the electorates can state their approval or disapproval of their...

European Parliament elections, to be held between 23 and 26 of May, will be a key political event in Europe. However, we expect limited short-term impact, given the European Parliament's limited ability to set Brussels' agenda.European Parliament (EP) elections will be a key political event in Europe, a form of ‘midterm election’ in which the electorates can state their approval or disapproval of their respective national governments. Turnout in EP elections has been on a downward trend over...

The transition to new leadership in Germany could have implications for Europe as a whole. As a consequence of the heavy drop of support in recent regional elections, Chancellor Merkel has declared she would not run again for leadership of the CDU at the 6-8 December party convention. Merkel also said she would retire from politics at the end of the current parliament in 2021. It is questionable whether she will get...

The transition to new leadership in Germany could have implications for Europe as a whole.As a consequence of the heavy drop of support in recent regional elections, Chancellor Merkel has declared she would not run again for leadership of the CDU at the 6-8 December party convention. Merkel also said she would retire from politics at the end of the current parliament in 2021. It is questionable whether she will get that far, and well before then, the transition to a new leader amid a loss of...

Renewed political risks are leading to very limited repricing of the sovereign risk premiums.A Catalan crisis, a Dutch eurosceptic-leaning government coalition, the return of Austrian populists, difficult German coalition talks… Eurosceptics have had plenty of opportunities to make a comeback, and yet the market continues to trade each event as largely idiosyncratic in nature.Explanations abound for the resilience of peripheral markets to political risks, including a stronger and broad-based...

While we believe upcoming elections are unlikely to shake the European edifice, investors are turning cautious, if only because opinion poll accuracy has proved questionable over the past year.There are good reasons for investors to worry about political risks in Europe. The most legitimate concerns, in our view, come from the timing of elections this year in the largest euro area countries. They are coming against the backdrop of a broad shift towards protectionism, and at a time when ECB...

Political risks never completely disappear from the European landscape, but we are not convinced that the US elections have materially increased the odds of another populist ‘accident’ in the euro area.While the Italian referendum is the most obvious near-term risk, we see extremely low chances of a nationalist, anti-European party winning a major election next year or holding a legally-binding referendum on EU/EMU membership. Apart from any other consideration, electoral processes are too...

The political temperature is rising in the euro area. But in the short term at least, we believe political developments could actually boost sentiment Europe is facing a number of risk events amid a deteriorating political and social backdrop (see Table 1 below for the most important ones), including the ongoing migrant crisis, the Brexit referendum, the first review of Greece’s third bailout programme, and the prospects of new elections in Spain. There is no stable relationship between...