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Tag Archives: Euro area growth momentum

Hard data proves soft in the euro area

Euro area industrial production (excluding construction) was weak in February (-0.8% m-o-m) and follows the recent release of other disappointing pieces of hard data such as retail sales, German factory orders and trade. Based on available ‘hard’ data, real GDP growth rate in the euro area is projected to be 0.1-0.2% q-o-q in Q1 2018 (see chart below), a sharp slowdown from 0.6% q-o-q in Q4 2017. However, ‘soft’ data,...

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Hard data proves soft in the euro area

Signs of a certain loss of momentum may well fuel additional ECB dovishness in the near term, but is unlikely to compromise upcoming policy normalisation.Euro area industrial production (excluding construction) was weak in February (-0.8% m-o-m) and follows the recent release of other disappointing pieces of hard data such as retail sales, German factory orders and trade. Based on available ‘hard’ data, real GDP growth rate in the euro area is projected to be 0.1-0.2% q-o-q in Q1 2018, a...

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EA: Bank credit flows rose again in May

Euro area M3 and credit flows for May were pretty strong overall. Our GDP growth forecast remains unchanged for the euro area.Euro area credit flows to non-financial corporations increased again in May, by EUR10 bn in adjusted terms, following a gain of EUR11 bn in April.Broad money growth (M3) rose marginally from 4.9% to 5.0% y-o-y. Bank lending growth to the private sector was broadly unchanged at 2.6% y-o-y, in line with leading indicators.Overall, we are keeping unchanged our GDP growth...

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Rise in our growth forecast for the euro area

We are upgrading our GDP growth forecast for the euro area to 1.9% this year, although we expect a modest decline in momentum in the second half.Euro area Q1 GDP growth was today revised up to 0.6% quarter on quarter, from 0.5% in the previous estimate. This revision reflects large adjustments in several countries, and mechanically pushes our annual growth forecasts higher. We now expect euro area real GDP to grow by 1.9% on average this year, after 1.7% in 2016 and 1.9% in 2015. We had...

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Euro area: latest figures raise our 2017 GDP forecast to 1.5%

Growth in the euro area outstripped growth in the US last year, while the latest indicators suggest 2017 has gotten off to a strong start. Our GDP forecasts are pushed up mechanically. Euro area real GDP expanded by 0.5% q-o-q in the fourth quarter, marking an acceleration from Q3’s 0.4% gain. The euro area economy grew at an annual average of 1.7% in 2016, compared with 1.9% in 2015. Last year was the first time since 2008 that real GDP growth in the euro area was above that of the...

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