Tag Archives: ECB

Overview: The dollar’s recent losses have left it stretched on a near-term basis after today’s ECB meeting, the focus will shift to the Federal Reserve, next week’s meeting, and the employment report. The greenback is trading with a firmer bias against the G10 currencies, while the emerging market currencies are more mixed. There, several Asian currencies are leading the advance today (South Korea, Taiwan, and the Philippines). Central European currencies are posted...

There are five macro highlights in the week ahead. After providing a thumbnail sketch of them, we will look more closely at the price action of the leading dollar-pairs. We suspect that the dollar is in the process of carving out a top amid ideas that a 5.0% terminal Fed funds rate is discounted. Sterling’s panic low recorded late September near $1.0350 may indeed by the cyclical low. It took place amid cries that it was an emerging market and linear projections...

Overview: Asia Pacific equities were mixed as the China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korean markets, among the large markets were unable to gain in the wake of a solid performance in the US. Europe is also struggling to maintain the upside momentum that has lifted the Stoxx 600 for the past four sessions. It is nearly flat as this note is penned. US futures are firm. Benchmark bond yields are higher, and the 10-year US Treasury yield is edging above 4.05%. European...

Overview: Benchmark 10-year yields are off 6-8 basis points in Europe and the United States. The panic seen at the start of the week in the UK has subsided considerably, as sterling recovered to almost where it was a week ago, while BOE’s hand has help steady the Gilt market. Equities in Asia Pacific suffered after the losses in the US yesterday. Hong Kong and India were notable exceptions. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is recouping around half of yesterday 1.65% fall, while...

Nothing happened last week. Stocks and bonds and commodities continued to trade and move around in price but there was no news to which those movements could be attributed. The economic news was a trifle and what there was told us exactly nothing new about the economy. A report that wholesale inventories rose 0.6% cannot be turned into market moving news no matter how hard the newsletter sellers try. Jobless claims fell 8,000? Yawn. Exports rose $500 million? In a...

Overview: The dollar is having one of the largest setbacks in recent weeks. We expected the dollar to soften ahead of next week’s CPI, which may fan ideas/hopes of a peak in US price pressures, but the magnitude and speed of the move is surprising, and likely speaks to the extreme positioning. Still, we caution that the intraday momentum indicators are stretched, and the underlying bullish sentiment, may see North American operators take advantage of the dollar’s...

Overview: Heightened warnings from Japanese officials has helped the dollar steady against the yen, while the euro hugs parity ahead of the outcome of the ECB meeting, where a 75 bp hike is anticipated. Most Asian equity markets rallied in the wake of yesterday’s gains in the US. China and Hong Kong were notable exceptions. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is practically flat as are US futures. The US 10-year yield is softer, a little below 3.25%, while European benchmark yields...

Part I of II, by Claudio Grass, Switzerland For years, I’ve been following very closely all the relevant updates on the State’s war on cash. I’ve read and written a lot about all the direct and indirect efforts to restrict the citizens’ choices and make sure they shift all their transactions and savings to the digital realm, where they can be better monitored, controlled and if need be, confiscated, by central authorities.  For some time now, the future looked rather grim....

Part I of II, by Claudio Grass, Switzerland For years, I’ve been following very closely all the relevant updates on the State’s war on cash. I’ve read and written a lot about all the direct and indirect efforts to restrict the citizens’ choices and make sure they shift all their transactions and savings to the digital realm, where they can be better monitored, controlled and if need be, confiscated, by central authorities.  For some time now, the...

Overview: The reverberations from last week continue to roil the capital markets today. Equities and bonds have been sold and the greenback bought. Most of the large markets in Asia Pacific fell by more 2%, including Japan’s Nikkei, Taiwan’s Taiex, and South Korea’s Kospi. Ironically, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composites eked out minor gains, but the CSI 300 still eased. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is off 1% after falling nearly 1.7% before the weekend. US futures warn of...