Tag Archives: ECB

Overview: Seven of the G10 central banks pumped the brakes between last week and this week as they purposely seek to push demand back into line with supply. And there are more signs that they are succeeding in weakening growth impulses. The dramatic surge in European bond yields continues today with 10-year rates mostly rising another 13-15 bp. Italian and Greek benchmark yields are up 22-24 bp. The US 10-year Treasury yield is up nearly five basis points to 3.50%....

Overview: The US dollar has come back bid after losing ground against most currencies as the markets reacted to the FOMC decision and press conference. The Antipodeans and Scandis have been tagged the hardest, illustrating the risk-off mood, and arguably the weakening growth prospects. Countries that peg their currencies to the dollar have hiked rates, as has the Philippines and Taiwan. The Swiss National Bank and Norway have also lifted policy rates by 50 bp and 25...

Overview: There are two themes today. First, there has been a modest bout of profit-taking on Chinese stocks (and yuan) after last week’s surge. Second, the ahead of the five G10 central bank meeting this week a series of market-sensitive economic reports, a consolidative tone is seen in most of the capital markets. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific region fell, led by a 2.2% loss in Hong Kong and 3% loss in its index of mainland shares. Europe’s Stoxx...

Half of the G10 central banks meet in the week ahead. The Fed is first on December 14, and the ECB, BOE, Swiss National Bank, and Norway's Norges Bank meet the following day. Before turning a thumbnail sketch of the central banks, let us look at the November US CPI, which will be reported as the Fed's two-day meeting gets underway on December 13. The terms of the debate have shifted. It is no longer about when US inflation will peak but how fast it will come down....

Overview: The easing of vaccination, quarantine, and some travel protocols related to Covid in China (and Hong Kong) continues to draw funds back into Chinese stocks, wherever they trade. The Hang Seng rose 2.3% today to close the week with a nearly 6.6% advance. The index of mainland companies that trade there rose 2.5% on the day for a7.3% weekly gain. The CSI 300 of mainland shares rose 1% today and almost 3.3% for the week. Japan’s 1% gain today ensured a gain...

Overview: Surging Covid cases in China and Hong Kong are undermining hopes of a Covid-pivot and the US dollar is broadly higher. Equities are under pressure to start the week. Most of the large bourses in the Asia Pacific but Japan, fell earlier today. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is paring last week’s minor gain, which was the fifth consecutive weekly rise. US stock futures are lower, while the 10-year US Treasury yield is flat near 3.83%. European yields are mostly around...

Overview: The capital markets are heading into the weekend mostly quietly in a consolidative fashion.  Ambiguous signals from yesterday’s US equities saw a narrowly mixed performance among the large Asia Pacific bourses, but of note, Hong and China markets saw this week’s gains trimmed. Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up around 1% near midday and is slightly above last week’s close.  US equity futures are trading with a firmer bias ahead of a large expiration of equity...

Overview: The situation in central Europe is still intense but it appears top US, European and Polish officials are more reluctant than some market participants to attribute the darkest of intentions and paint extreme narratives. The Polish zloty has recovered around 1.3% today and other central European currencies are also trading firmer to lead the emerging market currencies. The US dollar is broadly weaker against the G10 currencies. The large Asia Pacific bourses...

Overview: Recent developments have spurred a euphoria that is exciting the animal spirits. Greater confidence that US inflation has peaked, and new initiatives from China, and yesterday’s Biden-Xi meeting are all feeding this narrative. The dollar, which slumped last week, is sliding anew today. Strategically, we anticipated the turn, but tactically, we thought last week’s move had stretched the near-term technical condition.  The dollar is sharply lower (~-1%)...

One of the biggest reasons for people deciding to buy gold bars or to own silver coins is because of the folly of central banks and government. It seems bizarre to most people that we are all aware that money doesn’t grow on trees and yet those responsible for financial stability have forgotten this basic life-lesson. But, what has felt even more bizarre (and maddening) is for how long this foolishness has been allowed to continue. Well, it seems this won’t be the...