Tag Archives: ECB

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.15% to 1.0866 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: A compelling narrative for yesterday’s disparate price action is lacking. A flight to safety, which is a leading interpretation, does not explain the weakness in the yen, gold, or US Treasuries. Month- and quarter-end portfolio and hedge adjustments may be at work, but the risk is...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.22% to 1.0975 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Central bank activity is still very much the flavor of the day, but investors are looking for the next focus. The Bank of Japan and the Swiss National Bank stood pat, while Indonesia cut for the third consecutive time and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Saudi Arabia quickly followed the Fed. Brazil...

A few hours after the ECB announced a new package of monetary accommodation, I joined a discussion on CNBC Asia with Nancy Hungerford and Sir Jegarajah. Here is a clip of part of our discussion.  I make two points. The first is about the euro’s price action. What impressed me about it was that the euro posted an outside up day, trading on both sides of the previous day’s range and closing above its high. When Sri and I were talking early in the Asian morning, there...

The thing about R* is mostly that it doesn’t really make much sense when you stop and think about it; which you aren’t meant to do. It is a reaction to unanticipated reality, a world that has turned out very differently than it “should” have. Central bankers are our best and brightest, allegedly, they certainly feel that way about themselves, yet the evidence is clearly lacking. When Ben Bernanke wrote for the Washington Post in November 2010 announcing somehow the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.19% to 1.0932 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 13(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The markets are digesting ECB’s actions and an easing in US-Chinese rhetoric. Next week features the FOMC meeting and three other major central banks (Japan, Switzerland, and Norway). The US equity rally that saw the S&P 500 edge closer to the record high set in late July...

If Mario Draghi wanted to wow them, this wasn’t it. Maybe he couldn’t, handcuffed already by what seems to have been significant dissent in the ranks. And not just the Germans this time. Widespread dissatisfaction with what is now an idea whose time may have finally arrived. There really isn’t anything to this QE business. But we already knew that. American officials knew it in June 2003 when the FOMC got together to savage the Bank of Japan for their lack of...

For every action there is a reaction. Not only is that Sir Isaac Newton’s third law, it’s also a statement about human nature. Unlike physics where causes and effects are near simultaneous, there is a time component to how we interact. In official capacities, even more so. Bureaucratic inertia means a lot more than just resistance to change, it also means, at times and in certain capacities, all sorts of biases. When the bureaucracy predicts one set of circumstance,...

Give stimulus a chance, that’s the theme being set up for this week. After relentless buying across global bond markets distorting curves, upsetting politicians and the public alike, central bankers have responded en masse. There were more rate cuts around the world in August than there had been at any point since 2009. And there’s more to come. As Bloomberg reported late last week: Over the next 12 months, interest-rate swap markets have priced in around 58 more...

The step away from the edge of the abyss may have stirred the animal spirits, but it remains precarious at best. The formal withdrawal of the extradition bill in Hong Kong is too late and too little at this juncture. The ambitions of the protests have evolved well beyond that. Italy has a new government, but a prolonged honeymoon is unlikely for this unlikely union. Face-to-face talks between the US and China are better than no talks but hardly indicates an end to...

We expect the ECB to strengthen its forward guidance by linking the future path of policy rates to a new asset purchase programme.We estimate that a new QE2 programme worth at least EUR600bn would be needed for the ECB to close a 0.50% inflation gap. If anything, the decreasing marginal returns of QE and the risk of a de-anchoring of inflation expectations call for a more aggressive programme.How much does the ECB need to ease? QE size matters, but so do other parameters including the...