“We’re moving into a global recession that has nothing to do with Brexit,” warns Marc Faber stressing that Britain leaving the EU would not be disastrous, saying that if Switzerland can operate in a “single” market and outside of the EU so can Britain. “Brexit is a victory of ordinary people, common sense and people who are prepared to take responsibility for the sake of freedom against a political and...
Read More »Vive la Revolution! Brexit and a Dying Order
A Dying Order Last Thursday, the Brits said auf Wiedersehen and au revoir to the European Union. On Friday, the Dow sold off 611 points – a roughly 3.5% slump. What’s going on? In Europe and the U.S., the masses are getting restless. Mr. Guy Wroble of Denver, Colorado, explained why in a short letter to the Financial Times: The old liberal world order is dying because the cost-benefit ratio for the average person in...
Read More »Great Graphic: Age and Brexit
The betting and events markets have shifted more decisively than the polls in favor of the UK to remain in the EU. Sterling extended its rally from $1.4010 last Thursday to nearly $1.4785 today, as the market participants adjust positions. What is particular striking is that the asymmetrical perceptions of the personal impact of a vote to leave the EU. The Great Graphic here was posted on Business Insider,...
Read More »The Trump Risk: Will President Trump Trigger a Recession?
Home of the Brave? BALTIMORE – It is a bright summer day outside. A dry breeze sweeps down Cathedral Street and blows away the hot, humid air. It is hard for us to imagine that anything bad could happen today. But bad things do happen – even on nice days. The weather was fine when General Custer rode out to the Little Bighorn, too. Over the weekend, we worked at putting up a board fence – with half-round treated...
Read More »FX Daily, June 8: Currencies Broadly Stable, but Greenback is Vulnerable
On Swiss Franc Once again the Swiss Franc appreciates both against EUR and USD.The euro topped at 1.1095 shortly before the US payroll data and has fallen to 1.0932. The dollar has fallen from 0.9947 to 0.9596. New CHF trade recommendation by Dennis Gartman: We wish to sell the EUR and to buy the Swiss franc this morning upon receipt of this commentary. As we write, the cross is trading 1.0972:1 and we shall risk...
Read More »Janet Yellen – Backtracking Again
Muhammad Ali Could Take a Punch BALTIMORE – You had to admit. Muhammad Ali could take a punch. Unlike Donald Trump, Dick Cheney, George W. Bush, and Bill Clinton, he was a real war hero. He stood up and faced his enemies on the draft board, rather than dodging them. And when the feds walloped him as a criminal draft resister, Ali didn’t throw in the towel in a whimpering surrender to superior force. Instead, he used...
Read More »FX Daily, June7: Another Breakdown of EUR/CHF
Swiss Franc Once again both EUR and USD broke down against the franc. The adverse effect of the Friday US jobs reports is visible again.Moreover, CHF appreciated with the Asian block, with AUD and NZD and with the oil price. Swiss sales are pretty high to Asian countries. We also know that rising oil prices usually lead to a stronger CHF. Japan The Japanese yen is the major currency not to be gaining against...
Read More »Grasping Parasites and Bernie the Underdog
The Parasite – easily the most terrifying Superman villain Image credit: Marvel The Parasites Begin to Attach Themselves BALTIMORE – “Tommy… who are you voting for?” We put the question to a local bulldozer operator whom we’ve known for at least half a century. Tommy, now 80 years old, is the last of a dying breed. He grew up plowing the earth to grow tobacco on Maryland’s Tidewater, on the western shore of the Chesapeake Bay. In the 1970s, when tobacco farming became unprofitable, he...
Read More »Frontrunning: May 31
Major Bourses on Course to End Month Sharply Higher (WSJ) Brent crude lower on strong Middle East oil output (Reuters) Treasuries Lose Their Lead Over Shares as Fed Moves Toward Shift (BBG) Lost Decade for Value Stocks Tests Faithful Who Say End is Nigh (BBG) Iraqi army pause at southern edge of Falluja as IS fights back (Reuters) Risky Reprise of Debt Binge Stars U.S. Companies Not Consumers (BBG) The Untold Story Behind Saudi Arabia’s 41-Year U.S. Debt Secret (BBG) Nuns With Guns: The...
Read More »A Thank You to the Jackasses Running the Economy
Two of many symptoms of the much-bewailed “populist backlash”… Image via economyincrisis.org Rolling Back 200 Years of Growth BALTIMORE, Maryland – The press reported mixed financial news on Thursday. House sales, oil, unemployment figures… up, down… the news left investors puzzled. Stocks went mostly nowhere. But amid the confusing noise was the sound of an alarm: “Fall in U.S. productivity sparks fears of populist backlash as wages stagnate,” says a lumbering headline in the...
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