Tag Archives: Chinese exports

Net exports likely to be a drag on GDP growth in 2019.Chinese exports decelerated significantly in November, rising by 5.4% year-over-year (y-o-y), down from 15.5% the previous month. The slowdown in Chinese exports was likely a result of the deceleration in both global growth and the tapering of front-loading of exports to the US.Looking forward, we expect Chinese exports to decelerate further, especially in early 2019, just as China honours its commitment to increase purchases from the US,...

Latest data suggests continued growth moderation in Q3. Our 2018 Chinese GDP forecast remains unchanged, but we see potential downside risk.In August, Purchasing Manager Indices (PMIs) sent mixed messages about the Chinese economy. Official PMIs compiled by the national bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing showed the market picking up slightly in August, while the Markit PMIs (also known as the Caixin PMIs) indicated further growth deceleration. Taking...

We expect the authorities to adapt fiscal and monetary policies to deal with downward risks to growth prospects.Chinese GDP for Q2 came in at Rmb22.0 trillion (about USD3.4 trillion), rising 6.7% year-over-year (y-o-y) in real terms. This represents a moderate deceleration from Q1 (6.8% y-o-y), largely in line with our expectations (see chart). For the first two quarters of the year as a whole, the economy expanded by 6.8% compared to the same period last year.The data show that China’s...

In response to the weakening of growth momentum and the threat of a trade war with the US, the Chinese authorities are likely to continue to make monetary and fiscal adjustments.Recent data releases generally point to a softening in China’s growth momentum. The deceleration is most notable in fixed-asset investment and retail sales, and the rising trade tensions between US and China may have weighed on the export sector.The official manufacturing PMI for June came in at 51.5, down from 51.9...

June PMI surveys suggest that economic activity moderated only slightly in the last quarter, but we maintain our view the deceleration in Chinese growth will be more notable in the second half.China’s official manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 in June, the second highest reading in 2017. The Markit manufacturing PMI also rebounded to 50.4 in June after having dropped below the 50 threshold in the previous month. The rise in both indices in June suggests that China’s growth momentum in the...

Growth momentum in China has softened a bit after a strong first quarter. Meanwhile, US-China trade relations look like they might be improving.Economic indicators for April point to some softening in growth momentum in China. Hard data confirm the moderation seen in manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs released earlier this month, and the direction of change is consistent with our expectation that Q1 marked the peak of growth momentum in China for 2017.In our view, the deceleration in...

Chinese exports declined in September, but strong construction activity means there is upside risk to our 6.5% growth forecast for 2016. Headline exports for China fell by 10% in September year-over-year (y-o-y), compared with a 2.8% drop in August. This significant downturn was partly due to a high base-year effect. The notable increase in Chinese exports in September 2015 (even after seasonal adjustments) makes the year-over-year comparison particularly unfavourable. In our view, the...

Improved export and import data, together with fiscal measures, mean that the Chinese economy remains on track to achieve 6.5% growth this year According to data released last week, China’s exports in August fell 2.8% year over year, which was better than Bloomberg consensus forecasts of a 4% drop and the 4.4% fall seen in July. Exports improved across the board, with exports strongest to developed economies. China’s headline export growth in year-over-year terms has been negative since...