Tag Archives: 9) Personal Investment

Housing affordability helps explain why residential real estate transactions have reached a standstill. Over the last five years, housing prices have surged. Per the Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index, home prices from 20 of the largest cities have risen between 33% and 80%. Over the same five-year period, mortgage rates jumped from 3.68% to 6.81%. Wage growth has helped to offset the higher prices and mortgage rates. However, with the median wage growth of 26%...

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report 2025 - Do Economic Indicators Support Bullish Outlooks How We Are Trading It Research Report -The Kalecki Profit Equation And The Coming Reversion Youtube - Before The Bell Market Statistics Stock Screens Portfolio Trades This Week Everybody Is Very Bullish Last week, we discussed how speculation and leverage have returned in earnest to the market as investors rush to take on increasing levels of risk. With...

Bond yields are primarily driven by macroeconomic factors such as inflation and economic growth. Given their impact on inflation and the economy, the U.S. dollar and oil prices are frequently well correlated with bond yields. Therefore, bond traders often take their cue from the dollar and oil markets. The dollar (blue), as graphed on the right, has been on a tear since early October. As is typical, bond yields (orange) closely followed the dollar higher. The...

Financial markets often move in cycles where enthusiasm drives prices higher, sometimes far beyond what fundamentals justify. As discussed in last week's #BullBearReport, leverage and speculation are at the heart of many such cycles. These two powerful forces support the amplification of gains during upswings but can accelerate losses in downturns. Today’s market environment shows growing signs of these behaviors, particularly in options trading and leveraged...

Based on early Black Friday sales estimates, sales were strong, but shoppers were much more inclined to take advantage of online sales than go to the malls and stores in person. Mastercard SpendingPulse estimates that in store sales only grew by 0.7% from last year, while online sales rose by nearly 15%. Facteus, another data source, claims that in-store sales fell by 5.4% compared to an increase of 8.5% for online sales. Per ABC News and Adobe Analytics: Black...

New home sales fell by 17.30% in October, marking the most significant monthly decline in ten years, as shown in the graph on the left below. Furthermore, the supply of new homes on the market rose from 7.7 to 9.5 months. Not surprisingly, building permits fell by 0.4% following a 3.1% decline last month due to slowing sales. New home sales have been negative in six of the previous eight months. Furthermore, the Case-Shiller home price index shows weakness in the...

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report Extreme Speculation Has Returned How We Are Trading It Research Report -Trumpflation Risks Likely Overstated Youtube - Before The Bell Market Statistics Stock Screens Portfolio Trades This Week A Note Of Thanksgiving While belated, we sincerely hope you had a happy and fulfilling Thanksgiving holiday. In the words of Henry David Thoreau, “I am grateful for what I am and have. My Thanksgiving is perpetual.”...

In a recent Commentary- MicroStrategy Is A Leveraged ETF In Disguise - we discussed the company's business model, which revolves almost entirely around highly speculative bitcoin and leverage. To wit: So, what is MicroStrategy? It’s a leveraged Bitcoin fund disguised as a non-profit technology company. Regarding leverage and speculation, we also recently discussed the surging use of options, particularly those with short time frames. Options employ significant...

Donald Trump nominated seasoned hedge fund manager Scott Bessent as the next Treasury Secretary. While the Treasury Secretary has many responsibilities, debt management is one of the most important. Therefore, given the recent scrutiny the bond market has been paying to high deficits and associated debt, Scott Bessent appears to be a timely appointment. Bessent appears to appreciate the bond market's concern, which helps explain why he immediately released his 3-3-3...

Credit spreads are critical to understanding market sentiment and predicting potential stock market downturns. A credit spread refers to the difference in yield between two bonds of similar maturity but different credit quality. This comparison often involves Treasury bonds (considered risk-free) and corporate bonds (which carry default risk). By observing these spreads, investors can gauge risk appetite in financial markets. Such helps investors identify stress...