Tag Archives: 9) Personal Investment

Can famed investors Paul Tudor Jones and Stan Druckenmiller, who recently proclaimed they are short bonds, thus betting on higher yields, be wrong? Instead of mindlessly assuming such legendary investors are correct, let’s do some homework. First, though, let’s remind ourselves that Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller are known for their aggressive trading styles. Therefore, we don’t know whether their bets are short term trades for a quick profit, or...

Key market indicators for November 2024 present a complex but opportunity-filled environment for traders and investors. Following the first phase of Federal Reserve rate cuts and growing global uncertainties, the technical landscape suggests several notable shifts. Let’s explore the key market indicators to watch. Note: If you are unfamiliar with basic technical analysis, this video is a short tutorial. [embedded content] Seasonality and Breakout Patterns...

I was emailed several times about a recent Morningstar article about J.P. Morgan’s warning of lower forward returns over the next decade. That was followed up by numerous emails about Goldman Sachs’ recent warnings of 3% annualized returns over the next decade. While we have previously covered many of these article’s points, a comprehensive analysis is needed. Let’s start with the overall conclusion from JP Morgan’s article: “The investment bank’s models...

The Mayo Clinic defines Post Traumatic Stress Disorder, or PTSD, as “a mental health condition that’s caused by an extremely stressful or terrifying event — either being part of it or witnessing it.” Within the field of PTSD research is a concept called “memory inflation.” Memory inflation occurs when memories of traumatic events become more intense over time.    Memory inflation of past events amplifies one’s emotions and behaviors. As we will discuss, distress...

The financial media frequently opines on what the daily gyrations of the VIX (implied volatility index) signal regarding investor sentiment. Despite how often it is quoted and discussed, many investors do not truly appreciate what implied volatility measures. We take this opportunity to help you better understand implied volatility. Furthermore, we discuss other lesser-followed measures of implied volatility that help better assess whether implied VIX readings...

In the movies, greed is a trait often exhibited by the rich and powerful as a means to an end. Of particular note is the famous quote from Michael Douglas in the 1987 movie classic “Wall Street:” “The point is, ladies and gentlemen, that greed, for lack of a better word, is good. Greed is right, greed works. Greed clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Greed, in all of its forms; greed for life, for money, for love,...

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) recently released its second-quarter GDP report for 2024, showcasing a 2.96% growth rate. This number has sparked discussions among investors and analysts, particularly those predicting an imminent recession. There are certainly many supportive data points that have historically predicted recessionary downturns. The reversal of the yield curve inversion, the 6-month rate of change in the leading economic index, and most...

Numerous reader requests following our article, Agency REITs For A Bull Steepener, prompted us to write this follow-up with more detail about how to analyze agency REITs. This article doesn’t recommend specific agency REITs, but it does lay out some of the fundamental basics of the largest publicly traded agency REITs. In doing so, this analysis and the prior article provide a solid foundation for further evaluating agency REITs. Before diving in, it’s worth...

When most people hear the word “risk,” they think about wild market swings, scary headlines, and losing money overnight, but Howard Marks, Co-Chairman and Co-Founder of Oaktree Capital Management, takes a different approach. In his new video series How to Think About Risk, Marks digs deep into what risk is and how investors should handle it. Spoiler alert: It’s not just about volatility. The CFA Institute recently summarized the video stream, but I wanted to...

As the November 2024 election draws near, the election outcome will profoundly affect the financial markets. Whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the presidency, each administration will bring distinct policies creating investment opportunities and potential risks for investors. With a divisive political landscape, it is crucial to understand how these potential outcomes can shape the stock market and your portfolio strategy. Let’s break down the key...