Tag Archives: 9) Personal Investment

Many investors consider a decline of 20% or more to be a bear market. We can debate the merit of the random 20% figure, but according to that definition, gold miners, down 25% from its peak on October 22, are in a bear market. We have noted numerous times in the last month or so that gold and gold miners were getting very overbought based on their technicals. Furthermore, our recent article - Why Is Gold Surging? - highlights how the price of gold is diverging from...

Following President Trump's re-election, the S&P 500 has seen an impressive surge, climbing past 6,000 and sparking significant optimism in the financial markets. Unsurprisingly, the rush by perma-bulls to make long-term predictions is remarkable. For example, Economist Ed Yardeni believes this upward momentum will continue and has revised his long-term forecast, projecting that the S&P 500 will reach 10,000 by 2029. His forecast reflects a mix of factors...

At the last FOMC meeting, Jerome Powell was asked if they were concerned that inflation expectations are “de-anchoring, or put another way, are anchoring at a slightly higher level?” His answer specifically referenced the 5x5 forward inflation expected rate. He could have used many data points to answer the question. However, the fact that he specifically mentioned the 5x5 rate gives us an inflation expectations benchmark to better gauge how the Fed will manage...

Inside This Week's Bull Bear Report "Trump Trade" Sends Investors Into Overdrive How We Are Trading It Research Report -Paul Tudor Jones - I Won't Own Bonds Youtube - Before The Bell Market Statistics Stock Screens Portfolio Trades This Week A Pause That Refreshes? Last week, we discussed that with the election over and the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates, many market headwinds were put behind us. To wit; "As a result, the market surged...

When we discuss technical analysis in our articles and podcasts, we often examine the moving average convergence divergence indicator, better known as the MACD, or colloquially the Mac D. The MACD is one of our favored technical indicators to help forecast prices and manage risk. Accordingly, let's learn more about the MACD to see how it detects trends, potential trend changes, and assesses momentum. It's important to stress we use many technical and fundamental...

While the "Trump rally" appears to have just begun, one of its initial hallmarks is that investors want beta. Beta is a measure of the volatility of a stock versus the broader market, most often the S&P 500. For instance, a stock with a beta of 1.50 implies that based on prior trading, investors should expect the stock to be 1.50% more volatile than the S&P 500. Investors seeking beta must assume the market will be heading higher in the short term; thus,...

On the campaign trail, Donald Trump favored the crypto industry, including appointing "crypto-friendly" regulators. Moreover, one of the plans he mentioned several times was the creation of a federal strategic reserve of crypto assets. Trump's decisive victory, along with the Republican sweep of Congress, makes it even more likely the crypto industry and related cryptocurrencies will benefit from a Trump presidency. Accordingly, in the aftermath of the election,...

Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Board's Sentiment Index. To wit: "Consumer confidence in higher stock prices in the next year remains at the highest since 2018, following the 2017 “Trump” tax cuts." (Note: this survey was completed before the Presidential Election.) We also discussed households' allocations to equities, which,...

Investor exuberance has rarely been so optimistic. In a recent post, we discussed investor expectations of returns over the next year, according to the Conference Board’s Sentiment Index. To wit: “Consumer confidence in higher stock prices in the next year remains at the highest since 2018, following the 2017 “Trump” tax cuts.“ (Note: this survey was completed before the Presidential Election.) We also discussed households’ allocations to equities, which,...

Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) was the market's darling only six months ago. Amazingly, Its stock, had risen 3x in just the first three months of 2024. Consequently, S&P Global announced its addition to the S&P 500 Index. The announcement is annotated below with a box in early March. Furthermore, the circle, which coincides with the peak in Super Micro shares, was the date it started trading in the index. From the day it joined the index to today, it has...