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Swiss National Bank monetary policy meeting preview

Summary:
The SNB announcement is due on Thursday at 0730 GMT. This in brief via Standard Chartered: expect SNB to hike by 100bp Stan Chart were at +50bp but have ramped their expectation much higher. Add that this takes: the base rate to 0.75% from -0.25%, and out of negative territory for the first time since 2014 More: We believe positive currency rhetoric from the SNB and increasing hawkishness among major central banks support our larger-than-consensus rate hike forecast; most economists are predicting a 75bps hike, though markets are pricing in around an 86bps step Note the SNB monetary policy committee (MPC) sets rates only once every quarter; we forecast a further 50bps of hikes each at the ECB’s October and December meetings. We see a further 75bps of tightening by

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Swiss National Bank monetary policy meeting previewThe SNB announcement is due on Thursday at 0730 GMT.

This in brief via Standard Chartered:

  • expect SNB to hike by 100bp

Stan Chart were at +50bp but have ramped their expectation much higher. Add that this takes:

  • the base rate to 0.75% from -0.25%, and out of negative territory for the first time since 2014

More:

  • We believe positive currency rhetoric from the SNB and increasing hawkishness among major central banks support our larger-than-consensus rate hike forecast; most economists are predicting a 75bps hike, though markets are pricing in around an 86bps step
  • Note the SNB monetary policy committee (MPC) sets rates only once every quarter; we forecast a further 50bps of hikes each at the ECB’s October and December meetings. We see a further 75bps of tightening by the SNB in December, taking the base rate to 1.5% by end-2022 (previously 0.25%), followed by a final 50bps of hikes in Q1-2023 to a terminal rate of 2.0%

SNB Governor Jordan


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