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Tag Archives: Central Banks

FX Daily, March 2: Central Banks’ Words of Assurance have Short Life

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.10% to 1.0632 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 2(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Comments beginning with Powell before the weekend, and BOJ and BOE earlier today promising support have saw equity markets briefly stabilize after last week’s dramatic moves. The G7 will hold a teleconference this week, but speculation of a coordinated rate move does not seem...

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Banana Republic Money Debasement In America

Addicted to Spending There are many falsehoods being perpetuated these days when it comes to money, financial markets, and the economy. But when you cut the chaff, three related facts remain: Uncle Sam needs your money. He needs a lot of your money. And he needs it bad! The inescapable logic of tax & spend: empty vault… empty pockets… gimme more! PT According to the Congressional Budget Office, the federal budget deficit for the first two months of fiscal year...

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August TIC: Trying To Get Collateral Out of the Shadows

The second most frustrating aspect of trying to analyze global shadow money is how the term “shadow” really applies in this case. It’s not really because banks are being sneaky, desperately maintaining their cover for any number of illicit activities they are regularly accused of undertaking. The money stays in the shadows for the simple reason central bankers don’t know their jobs; even after a somehow Global Financial Crisis in 2008, they don’t realize the full...

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US Money Supply Growth – Bouncing From a 12-Year Low

  True Money Supply Growth Rebounds in September In August 2019 year-on-year growth of the broad true US money supply (TMS-2) fell to a fresh 12-year low of 1.87%. The 12-month moving average of the growth rate hit a new low for the move as well. The main driver of the slowdown in money supply growth over the past year was the Fed’s decision to decrease its holdings of MBS and treasuries purchased in previous “QE” operations. This was partly offset by bank credit...

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Fed Chair Powell’s Inescapable Contradiction

Under the Influence   “This feels very sustainable.” – Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, October 8, 2019 Conflict and contradiction.  These were two of the main themes reverberating around the world of centralized monetary planning this week. On Tuesday, for instance, a novel and contradictory central banker parlance – “reserve management purposes” – was birthed into existence by Fed Chair Jay Powell.  We will have more on this later on. But first, to best...

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Repo Quake – A Primer

  Chaos in Overnight Funding Markets Most of our readers are probably aware that there were recently quite large spikes in repo rates. The events were inter alia chronicled at Zerohedge here and here. The issue is fairly complex, as there are many different drivers at play, but we will try to provide a brief explanation. There have been two spikes in the overnight general collateral rate – one at the end of 2018, which was a first warning shot, and the one of last...

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“Our prosperity is temporary and illusory. “ – Jeff Deist

As we go through an important paradigm shift in politics, in the global economy, in equity markets, and of course in precious metals too, the fundamental economic principles we used to rely on seem to be increasingly under attack. Central bankers the world over are doubling down on reckless monetary policies, punishing savers and responsible, long-term investors. In Europe, we have already seen the damage that negative interest rates and protracted QE have inflicted, and will continue to...

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“Our prosperity is temporary and illusory. “ – Jeff Deist

As we go through an important paradigm shift in politics, in the global economy, in equity markets, and of course in precious metals too, the fundamental economic principles we used to rely on seem to be increasingly under attack. Central bankers the world over are doubling down on reckless monetary policies, punishing savers and responsible, long-term investors. In Europe, we have already seen the damage that negative interest rates and protracted QE have inflicted, and will continue...

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September Monthly

Three forces are shaping the investment climate. The US-China trade conflict escalates at the start of September as both will raise tariffs on each other’s goods and are threatening another round in mid-December (US 25% tariffs on $250 of Chinese imports will increase to 30% on October 1). Some third parties may benefit from the re-casting of supply chains, but the first impact is understood to weaken growth impulses. That is aggravating the slowdown already evident...

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New monetary policies for new challenges

As central banks try (yet again) to bolster faltering growth and inflation, it is important to grasp how the ‘style’ and aims of monetary policy-making have changed over time and how they need to evolve in the future. The world is being disrupted by structural trends such as populism, demographic and climate change and technological innovation. Likewise, with previous approaches producing fewer results, we believe it is time to envisage monetary policies that address...

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