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Pension calculation error does not change future, argues statistician

Summary:
This week, an error was found in the government’s calculation of the future hole in state pension funding. While the error, which overstates the shortfall by CHF 4 billion, is substantial, it does not change the trend, according to Stéphane Rossini, head of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), reported RTS. Swiss Francs © Boris Bascarevic | Dreamstime.comThe CHF 4 billion error is highly embarrassing for the government, which has used the figures to argue in favour of pension reform, including a successful referendum to lift the state retirement age for women to 65 in line with that of men. Since the mistake was discovered, the Green and Socialist Parties have called for a re-run of the 2022 vote that lifted the state retirement age for women from 64 to 65, arguing the result might

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This week, an error was found in the government’s calculation of the future hole in state pension funding. While the error, which overstates the shortfall by CHF 4 billion, is substantial, it does not change the trend, according to Stéphane Rossini, head of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO), reported RTS.

Pension calculation error does not change future, argues statistician
Swiss Francs © Boris Bascarevic | Dreamstime.com

The CHF 4 billion error is highly embarrassing for the government, which has used the figures to argue in favour of pension reform, including a successful referendum to lift the state retirement age for women to 65 in line with that of men.

Since the mistake was discovered, the Green and Socialist Parties have called for a re-run of the 2022 vote that lifted the state retirement age for women from 64 to 65, arguing the result might have been different if the correct numbers had been presented ahead of the vote.

However, according to the chief statistician at FSO, the error has little impact on the overall trend. By 2028, the difference between the old figure and the corrected one is 1.5%. For 2030 it is around 3% and for 2033 it is 6%. In addition, increasing the pension by 1/13 closes the gap significantly. With these higher payments, the fund will be paying out more than it is taking in by 2026.

Rossini also pointed out the complexity of the calculation, which contains 70,000 lines of information.

The error was discovered when statisticians went back to look at the calculation earlier this year to verify the impact of the extra 13th month pension payment that needs to be paid following a successful vote in favour of higher state pensions in March 2024.

More on this:
RTS article (in French) – Take a 5 minute French test now

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