SNB & CHF

This isn’t about COVID. It’s been building since the end of August, a shift in mood, perception, and reality that began turning things several months before even then. With markets fickle yet again, a lot today, what’s going on here? What you’ll hear or have already heard is something about Europe and more lockdowns, fears about a second wave of the pandemic. No, that doesn’t fit the herdlike change in direction you can observe across many different markets (below)....

For all these reasons, the risks of systemic collapse are much higher than commonly anticipated. There’s an irony in discussing risk: since we all have an instinctive reaction to visible risk, we think we understand it. But alas, we don’t, especially when the risk is invisible and systemic. We even misjudge extremely visible risk. People routinely die rushing to save someone who foolishly waded into fast-moving water a few yards above a waterfall. The rescue is...

Self-Reinforcing Self-Delusion of Econometric Models The world is complex. Too complex to model. Assumptions must be made. Is the exclusion of permanent shocks to the economy a reasonable one? Rational? Plausible? Acceptable? And yet econometricians -- with their hands on the wheel mind you -- say it is! That iceberg dead ahead? Not part of the model. Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, an innuendo. Artwork by the Unit Root, David...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.34% to 1.068 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 28(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Sickened by the surging virus, animal spirits are bed-ridden today. Several European countries are experiencing the most fatalities and illnesses in several months, and policymakers are responded with national restrictions. In 32 US states, hospitalizations have surged by over 10% in...

© Dwfotos | Dreamstime.com Recent petitions from two groups of scientists clash over herd immunity. The Great Barrington Declaration On 4 October 2020, three public health experts launched the “Great Barrington Declaration”, a petition calling on governments to protect the vulnerable and allow the young and healthy to live their lives without restrictions. This group says it has grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing...

Interview with Patrick Barron – Part I of II We’re less than two weeks away from the US election, and yet this sense of utter confusion, bitter political conflict, and economic uncertainty that has been ominously hovering over the nation, as well as the rest of the world, doesn’t seem to have subsided. The country still appears to be in a directionless state, with its economy in serious trouble and its society dangerously fragmented. There seems to be a wide rift in...

The ECB meets Thursday and is widely expected to stand pat until the next meeting. Macro forecasts won’t be updated until the December 10 meeting, but the bank will have to acknowledge the deteriorating outlook now. There’s a small risk of more jawboning against the stronger euro, but it should otherwise be an uneventful meeting. We expect the ECB to increase QE in December but another rate cut seems very unlikely, as does activation of OMT. POSSIBLE NEXT STEPS...

Increasing virus numbers have pushed European governments to once again start imposing national measures; the week is starting off on a risk-off note Today may see the official end of stimulus talks; odds for Biden victory are increasing again but is already mostly priced in US manufacturing surveys for October will continue to roll out; Chile’s referendum on a new constitution passed in a landslide Brexit negotiations have been extended; Germany’s October IFO survey...

The Democrats, Liz Cheney, and the Never Trumpers still want endless wars, and they hate Trump’s apparent lack of enthusiasm for embracing their dreams of empire. This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack. Original Article: “On Foreign Policy, Trump Is Still the Lesser Evil“. You Might Also Like Walter Berns and the Cult of “Patriotic” Sacrifice [unable...

CHEOPS is a space telescope, whose name stands for 'CHaracterizing ExOPlanet Satellite'. Unlike other missions dedicated to searching for new planets, CHEOPS points at bright stars already known to host planets. It uses ultra-high precision photometry to observe planets while orbiting their stars and accurately determines their radii. Combining the radii with the planets' masses, which have already been estimated by ground-based surveys, the scientists can draw conclusions on what these...