Assumptions that some economists are employing in their theories appear to be detached from the real world. For example, in order to explain the economic crisis in Japan, Paul Krugman employed a theory based on the assumptions that people are identical and live forever. Whilst admitting that these assumptions are not realistic, Krugman nonetheless is of the view that somehow his theory could be useful in offering solutions to the economic crisis in Japan. Thus, Krugman wrote,The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate possibilities and clarify thinking, rather than to be realistic…. In this model individuals are identical and live forever, so that there are no realistic complications involving distribution within or between generations; output is simply given.If

Most experts agree that, through the manipulation of the short-term interest rates, the central bank can also determine the direction of the long-term interest rates. Some popular thinking alleges that the long-term interest rates are the average of the present and the expected short-term interest rates. Hence, it would appear that the central bank is the key in determining the interest rates. But is this valid?Individual time preferences and interest ratesAccording to thinkers such as Carl Menger and Ludwig von Mises, interest is the outcome of the fact that individuals assign a premium to present goods against identical goods in the future (i.e., time preference). The preference is not the result of capricious behavior but because life in the future is not

What is the Mises Institute?

The Mises Institute is a non-profit organization that exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian School of economics, individual freedom, honest history, and international peace, in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises and Murray N. Rothbard. Non-political, non-partisan, and non-PC, we advocate a radical shift in the intellectual climate, away from statism and toward a private property order. We believe that our foundational ideas are of permanent value, and oppose all efforts at compromise, sellout, and amalgamation of these ideas with fashionable political, cultural, and social doctrines inimical to their spirit.

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Many incorrectly assume that the overall economy’s output increases by a multiple of the increase in expenditure by government, consumers, and businesses. For instance, if out of an additional dollar received individuals spend $0.90 and save $0.10, then if consumers spending were to increase by $100 million, it is held that the overall output in the economy is going to increase by the tenfold of the increase in consumers’ expenditure (i.e. by $1 billion). The following example provides the reasoning behind this way of thinking.Because of the increase in consumers’ expenditure by $100 million, retailers’ income increases by $100 million. Retailers, in response to the increase in their income, likewise spend 90% of the $100 million (i.e., they raise expenditure on

Many economists incorrectly assume a growing economy also requires a growing money stock, assuming that economic growth gives rise to a greater demand for money. It is held that failing to increase money to facilitate increased trade will lead to a decline in prices of goods and services, destabilizing the economy and leading to an economic downturn.Some commentators believe that the lack of a flexible mechanism coordinating demand versus the money supply is the major reason why the gold standard leads to instability. The idea is that, relative to the growing demand for money because of growing economies, the supply of gold does not grow fast enough. Thus, to prevent economic shocks from imbalances between the demand and the supply of money, the Fed must make sure

Some have argued that new technological ideas, unlike material inputs and labor, are not in themselves scarce. Consequently, it is further argued that new ideas for more efficient processes and new products can make continuous economic growth possible. So-called experts, however, are of the view that in a fully competitive environment, firms are likely to be concerned that competitors are going to copy any innovations they introduce. Therefore, it is alleged that firms are likely to become reluctant to make costly investments in research and development.To deal with this problem, “experts” believe that it is necessary to introduce policies, such as subsidies, for research and development. Hence, it is concluded that government policies play a critical role in

What is the Mises Institute?

The Mises Institute is a non-profit organization that exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian School of economics, individual freedom, honest history, and international peace, in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises and Murray N. Rothbard. Non-political, non-partisan, and non-PC, we advocate a radical shift in the intellectual climate, away from statism and toward a private property order. We believe that our foundational ideas are of permanent value, and oppose all efforts at compromise, sellout, and amalgamation of these ideas with fashionable political, cultural, and social doctrines inimical to their spirit.

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According to some “experts,” there is an urgent need to remove cash from the economy. It is held that cash provides support to the “shadow economy” and permits tax evasion. Another justification for its removal is that, in times of economic shocks, which push the economy into a recession, the run for cash exacerbates the downturn—it becomes a factor contributing to economic instability. Moreover, it is argued that, in the modern world, most transactions can be settled by means of electronic funds transfer. Money in the modern world is allegedly an abstraction.The emergence of moneyMoney emerged because barter could not support the market economy. A butcher, who wanted to exchange his meat for fruit, might not be able to find a fruit farmer who wanted his meat,

According to some commentators, to counter inflation interest rates in the US must increase to a level that effectively restrains the economy. It is held that this increase in interest rates does not have to cause a recession if Fed’s policy makers could orchestrate a “soft landing.” The economy is portrayed as a spaceship that occasionally deviates from a path of “stable” economic growth and “stable” prices. All that is required to fix the problem is for the central bank to give a suitable “push” to the economy (i.e., the spaceship) to bring it back to the right growth path.Thus, if the economy falls into a recession, the central bank is expected to bring it onto the “stable” growth path by artificially lowering interest rates. Conversely, if the economy appears

Many commentators consider the spread between the long-term interest rate and the short-term interest rate as an important indicator to establish the future course of economic activity. An increase in the spread is seen as pointing toward good economic times ahead. Conversely, a declining spread raises the likelihood of an economic recession.Historically, in the U.S., the differential between the yield on the 10-year T-bill and the federal funds rate was leading the yearly growth rate of industrial production by 12 months (see Figure 1).Figure 1: Year-over-year U.S. industrial production versus 12-month yield curve lag (%)Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED)A popular explanation for the determination of the shape of the yield spread is provided by

What is the Mises Institute?

The Mises Institute is a non-profit organization that exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian School of economics, individual freedom, honest history, and international peace, in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises and Murray N. Rothbard. Non-political, non-partisan, and non-PC, we advocate a radical shift in the intellectual climate, away from statism and toward a private property order. We believe that our foundational ideas are of permanent value, and oppose all efforts at compromise, sellout, and amalgamation of these ideas with fashionable political, cultural, and social doctrines inimical to their spirit.

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Monopolies are believed to undermine individuals’ well-being, including being the cause of large increases in the prices of goods and services. According to Jean Tirole, the 2014 Nobel winner in economics, monopolies undermine the efficient functioning of the market economy by influencing the prices and the quantity of products, making consumers worse off.
Thus, monopolies supposedly cause market conditions to deviate from the ideal state of “perfect competition.” Effective enforcement of government regulations, then, is needed to control monopolies. Tirole has devised methods to strengthen the regulation of industries dominated by a few large firms.
The ‘perfect competition’ model
In the world of perfect competition, the following features characterize a market:

What is the Mises Institute?

The Mises Institute is a non-profit organization that exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian School of economics, individual freedom, honest history, and international peace, in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises and Murray N. Rothbard. Non-political, non-partisan, and non-PC, we advocate a radical shift in the intellectual climate, away from statism and toward a private property order. We believe that our foundational ideas are of permanent value, and oppose all efforts at compromise, sellout, and amalgamation of these ideas with fashionable political, cultural, and social doctrines inimical to their spirit.

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What is the Mises Institute?

The Mises Institute is a non-profit organization that exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian School of economics, individual freedom, honest history, and international peace, in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises and Murray N. Rothbard. Non-political, non-partisan, and non-PC, we advocate a radical shift in the intellectual climate, away from statism and toward a private property order. We believe that our foundational ideas are of permanent value, and oppose all efforts at compromise, sellout, and amalgamation of these ideas with fashionable political, cultural, and social doctrines inimical to their spirit.

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In the late 1960s Edmund Phelps and Milton Friedman challenged the popular view that there can be a sustainable trade-off between inflation and unemployment. In fact, over time, according to PF, loose central bank policies set the platform for lower economic growth and a higher rate of inflation, or stagflation.PF’s Explanation of StagflationStarting from a situation of equality between the current and the expected rate of inflation, the central bank decides to boost the rate of economic growth by raising the growth rate of money supply. As a result, a greater supply of money enters the economy and each individual now has more money at his disposal.Because of this increase, every individual believes he has become wealthier. This raises the demand for goods and

Many economic commentators believe increasing the quantity of money can revive an economy. This is based on the view that with more money in their pockets, people will spend more and others follow suit, as they hold that money is a mere means of payments.Money, however, is not the means of payments but rather a medium of exchange. It only enables one producer to exchange his product for the product of another producer. According to Murray Rothbard, “Money, per se, cannot be consumed and cannot be used directly as a producers’ good in the productive process. Money per se is therefore unproductive; it is dead stock and produces nothing.” The means of payments are always goods and services, which pay for other goods and services. Money simply facilitates these

In order to make the data “talk,” economists utilize a range of statistical methods that vary from highly complex models to a simple display of historical data. It is generally believed that one can organize historical data through quantitative methods into a useful body of information, which in turn can serve as the basis for assessing the economy.Now, it has been observed that declines in the unemployment rate are associated with a general rise in the prices of goods and services. Should we then conclude that decreases in the unemployment rate trigger price inflation? To confuse the issue further, it has also been observed that price inflation is well-correlated with changes in money supply.What are we to make out of all this? How are we to decide which is the

What is the Mises Institute?

The Mises Institute is a non-profit organization that exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian School of economics, individual freedom, honest history, and international peace, in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises and Murray N. Rothbard. Non-political, non-partisan, and non-PC, we advocate a radical shift in the intellectual climate, away from statism and toward a private property order. We believe that our foundational ideas are of permanent value, and oppose all efforts at compromise, sellout, and amalgamation of these ideas with fashionable political, cultural, and social doctrines inimical to their spirit.

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What is the Mises Institute?

The Mises Institute is a non-profit organization that exists to promote teaching and research in the Austrian School of economics, individual freedom, honest history, and international peace, in the tradition of Ludwig von Mises and Murray N. Rothbard. Non-political, non-partisan, and non-PC, we advocate a radical shift in the intellectual climate, away from statism and toward a private property order. We believe that our foundational ideas are of permanent value, and oppose all efforts at compromise, sellout, and amalgamation of these ideas with fashionable political, cultural, and social doctrines inimical to their spirit.

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In our modern political culture, many people claim that profits are the outcome of some individuals exploiting other individuals. Hence, anyone who is seen trying to make profits is regarded as an enemy of society and must be stopped before inflicting damage. According to Henry Hazlitt, “The indignation shown by many people today at the mention of the very word profits indicates how little understanding there is of the vital function that profits play in our economy.”Furthermore, Hazlitt held,In a free economy, in which wages, costs and prices are left to the free play of the competitive market, the prospect of profits decides what articles will be made, and in what quantities—and what articles will not be made at all. If there is no profit in making an article,

Mainstream economists believe our knowledge of the world of economics is elusive, so the criteria for choosing a theory should be its predictive power. If the theory “predicts,” it is regarded as a valid framework to assess the economy. Once a theory fails in that role, the search for a new theory begins.For instance, an economist believes that consumer outlays on goods and services are determined by disposable income. Once this view is validated by statistical methods, it is used to assess the future direction of consumer spending. If the theory fails to produce accurate forecasts, it is either replaced or modified by adding some other explanatory variables. This way of thinking implies that our knowledge of the world of economics is elusive.Since we cannot

The price or the rate of exchange of one good in terms of another is the amount of the other good divided by the amount of the first good. In the money economy, price will be the amount of money divided by the amount of the first good.Suppose two transactions were conducted. In the first transaction, one TV set is exchanged for $1,000. In the second transaction one shirt is exchanged for $40. The price or the rate of exchange in the first transaction is $1,000 per TV set. The price in the second transaction is $40 per shirt. Could we then establish the average price paid in these two transactions?In order to calculate the average price, we must add these two ratios and divide them by two. However, $1,000 per TV set cannot be added to $40 per shirt, implying that

Some economists believe that the increase in the minimum wage will boost unemployment, while other economists think otherwise. Hence, they believe that raising the minimum wage would raise the living standards of workers.For example, in a study conducted in the 1990s, economists David Card and Alan Krueger examined a minimum-wage rise in New Jersey by comparing fast-food restaurants there and in an adjacent part of Pennsylvania, finding no impact on employment. Other economists, however, found that the increase in minimum wages increased employment. Given the contradictory results, is there an alternative approach to decide whether an increase in the minimum wage will result in an increase or reduction in employment?Can Historical Data Inform Us on How the Economy

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In an article in the New York Times on March 27, 2018, Paul Krugman argues that economists who believe increases in money supply cause inflation are wrong. According to Krugman, the key factor that sets inflation in motion is unemployment. While a decline in the unemployment rate is associated with an increase in the rate of inflation, an upsurge in the unemployment rate is associated with a decline in the rate of inflation.Krugman believes inflation is about general increases in the prices of goods and services, which we suggest is a flawed definition. To ascertain what inflation really is, we must establish how this phenomenon emerged, tracing it back to its historical origin.The Essence of InflationInflation is an act of embezzlement. Historically, inflation

Some economists believe that the balance of payments is what determines currency exchange rates. In fact, exchange rates are always about the purchasing power of some currencies relative to others.
Original Article: Does the Balance of Payments Determine Exchange Rates?

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It is a common belief that a key factor in determining the currency exchange rate is the balance of payments. An increase in imports increases the demand for foreign currency. To obtain the foreign currency, importers buy it using domestic currency, which strengthens the exchange rate of the foreign currency against domestic money. Conversely, an increase in exports, in which exporters exchange their foreign currency earnings for domestic currency, increases the value of the domestic currency exchange rate against the foreign currency.
In this way of thinking, exporters determine the supply of foreign currency while importers determine the demand for it. Hence, the interaction between supply and demand establishes a foreign currency exchange rate.
Following this

While the creator of modern portfolio theory was awarded a Nobel Prize, that doesn’t mean the theory isn’t flawed. In fact, it explains very little about investments.
Original Article: Modern Portfolio Theory Is Mistaken: Diversification Is Not Investment

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Whenever an economy falls into a recession, many economists point out that the economic slump means there will be idle capital and labor. Resources that could be employed are now unemployed because the economic slump has softened aggregate demand for goods and services.
So-called experts believe the government must increase the overall demand in the economy since stronger demand will permit idle resources to be employed again. Hence, many economists recommend that the central bank adopt an easy monetary stance to strengthen aggregate demand.
It appears to be quite simple: boost expenditure on goods and services and this, in turn, will strengthen the overall output in the economy by the multiple of the expenditure, thanks to the Keynesian multiplier. According to

According to modern portfolio theory (MPT), financial asset prices always fully reflect all available and relevant information, and any adjustment to new information is virtually instantaneous. Thus, asset prices respond only to the unexpected part of information since the expected portion is already embedded in prices.
For example, if the central bank raises interest rates by 0.5 percent, and if market participants anticipated this action, asset prices will reflect this expected increase prior to the central bank’s raising interest rates. Note that once the central bank lifts the interest rate by 0.5 percent, this increase will have no effect on asset prices since stock prices have already adjusted. However, should the central bank raise interest rates by 1