Tag Archives: US

Summary: Forces emanating from the US and Europe are driving the capital markets. The moves may be stretched technically, but the market adjustment has further to run as not even two Fed hikes are discounted for next year. European political concerns and an ECB expected to continue its asset purchases have driven German 2-year yields to new record lows. There are powerful moves underway in the capital...

True Political Axis One of the most widespread misconceptions in the realm of politics is the notion of a left-right axis. This has been used over and over to explain political outcomes and paint the various factions as polar opposites. For example, in the US the two main parties, the Republicans (right) and Democrats (left), are often portrayed as a fight between good and evil. Which party representing good and...

Share of World GDP A Brave New World is coming? Perhaps. We had a recent discussion with a group of people in the hopeless business of doing long term forecasting. This made us think about what the world will look like over the next 20 to 40 years. A pretty thankless task, but the bottom line is without a damn good war, Asia will be the way of the future. As an experiment, assume, as most long term forecasters do,...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: US jobs data was largely in line or better than expected. The stronger earnings growth may be more important than the headline. Canada’s data was mostly disappointing. The US October jobs report as a whole was in line with expectations, and suggests a...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: Bond yields have been rising in the US and Europe since the summer. There are some country-specific considerations and some generalized factors. Anxiety over US politics has helped bonds recover some lost ground. One of the most significant market...

Introduction by George Dorgan My articles About meMy booksFollow on:TwitterFacebookGoogle +YoutubeSeeking AlphaCFA SocietyLinkedINEconomicBlogs Summary: Bond yields have been rising in the US and Europe since the summer. There are some country-specific considerations and some generalized factors. Anxiety over US politics has helped bonds recover some lost ground. One of the most significant market...

Nous savions que la crise avait laminé les finances des Etats, de l’économie publique et des familles. Jusque là rien de nouveau.Mais en finance, quand quelqu’un perd, il y a en général quelqu’un d’autre qui gagne la même somme et peut-être plus. A moins qu’il ne s’agisse de billets physiques que l’on flambe, c’est comme ça. Nous allons donc nous intéresser aux grands gagnants de la crise financière. S’il y en a...

Central banks are currently creating the mother of all bubbles. To my view it was caused by masses of cheap labor in China that entered the global economy in the early 1990s.This reduced inflation and interest rates, while Chinese productivity continously improved, in particular when rural workers came into the cities.The mother of all bubbles will pop at the latest, when Chinese wages approach Western levels....

The major central banks have placed down their markers and have moved to stage left. There are the late-month high frequency data, which pose some headline risks in the week ahead. The main focus for most investors will be on several political developments. The first US Presidential debate is wild card, in the sense that the outcome is unknown. In recent weeks, the polls have drawn close. In early August, Nate Silver’s...

[unable to retrieve full-text content]Laws of politics have been turned upside down. The Intellectuals Yet Idiots can make no sense of it. The underdog who ‘tell it how it is’ appeal to people while established reasoning does not.