Tag Archives: US

It is not easy to recall another week in which there were so many potential changes to the broad investment climate. The relatively light economic calendar in the week ahead may allow investors to continue to ruminate about some of those developments. Here we provide thumbnail assessments of the main drivers. China The PBOC modified the way the reference rate is set.  Currencies are allowed to trade in a band around...

There are a number of events and economic reports in the week ahead that will help shape the investment climate in the weeks and months ahead. In recognition of the importance of initial conditions, let’s briefly summarize the performance of the dollar and main asset markets. After recovering from a five-month decline in September and October, the dollar has lost ground against all the major currencies here in November,...

Summary Busiest week of Q4. Fed, BOJ, and BOE, only the last is expected to change policy. Flash EMU CPI and US jobs. Positive developments in Italy, less so in Spain. The week ahead will be among the busiest in Q4. In this note, we provide a brief sketch of the different events and data points that will shape the investment climate. Given the importance of initial conditions, we will begin with an overview of the...

Summary Home ownership varies throughout the EU but is overall near US levels. Germany has the lowest home ownership, and Spain has the most.  Italy has the least amount of mortgages. US include owner equivalent rents in CPI, the EU does not. This Great Graphic was in the Financial Times recently. It shows home ownership rates several EU countries.  The useful chart also shows those who own (red bar) and those...

Summary Yellen has identified two challenges regarding the US labor market, the opioid epidemic and women participation in the labor force. The topic of the Jackson Hole gathering lends itself more to a discussion of these issues than the nuances of monetary policy. Dynamic world growth needs a dynamic US economy, and that requires more serious thinking about these socio-economic and political issues. The topic at...

The Fed's new forecasts show a third rate hike in 2017 for the second half of the year and three more in 2018. As expected, the US Federal Reserve raised the target range for the policy rate by 25 basis points to 1.00 percent – 1.25 percent. It also updated its policy normalization principles with...

Summary: Provided Le Pen and Macron or Fillion make to the second round, the market response to the French election results may be short lived. BOJ, Riksbank and ECB meetings. Spending authorization and some announcement from the White House on tax policy are in focus as Trump’s 100th day in office approaches. The results of the French presidential election will be known prior to the open of the Asian...

Summary: Monetary policy is off the table for at least the next two months. Several fiscal issues are coming to a head. Despite the GOP majority in Congress and White House, brinkmanship cannot be ruled out. The Federal Reserve hiked rates in March.  Whatever gradual hikes mean, it seems to preclude moves in back-to-back meetings.  There are two chances of a May hike:  Slim and none and Slim left town. June...

Summary: China’s trade concessions seem modest, but little discussion of US concessions. Reports suggest Trump is set to sign a new executive order to investigate trade practices in steel, aluminum, and maybe household appliances. Trade imbalances and floating currencies are not mutually exclusive. Last week’s meeting between the US and China’s Presidents did not produce much fireworks or headlines. The...

The macroeconomic fundamentals have not changed much in the first three months of the year.  The US growth remains near trend, the labor market continues to improve gradually, both headline and core inflation remain firm, and the Federal Reserve remains on course to hike rates at least a couple more times this year, even though the market is skeptical.  The uncertainty surrounding US fiscal has not been lifted, and it...