The US jobs market ends 2016 in good shape and wage growth reaches a new cyclical high.Non-farm payroll employment in the US rose by 156,000 month on month in December, slightly below consensus expectations of 175,000, while payroll growth figures for the previous two months were raised by 19,000. The unemployment rate rebounded slightly to 4.7% in December, only partly reversing the sharp decline of the previous month. The broader U6 unemployment rate fell to a new low of 9.2%.Looking...
Read More »Healthy U.S. jobs report points to early rate hike
The unemployment rate fell to a fresh cyclical low in November, and while wage growth disappointed, we expect it to pick up progressively next year.US non-farm payroll employment rose by a healthy 178,000 month-on-month (m-o-m) in November, in line with consensus expectations. Unexpectedly, the US unemployment rate fell further in November, to 4.6% from 4.9% in October, reaching its lowest level in more than nine years. At 4.6%, the US unemployment rate is now below the median rate of 4.8%...
Read More »Healthy payroll number in the U.S., strong increase in wages
Latest job numbers along with acceleration in wage growth reinforces the case for December rate hike.October’s non-farm payroll figure was healthy, with upward revisions for the previous two months. The unemployment rate inched down and year-on-year (y-o-y) wage increases reached a fresh cyclical high. The latest data tend to strengthen the case for a Fed hike in December.Non-farm payroll employment in the US rose by 161,000 m-o-m in October, marginally below consensus expectations. However,...
Read More »Disappointing U.S. jobs report means Fed may wait before hiking rates
Macroview Weak job creation figures reinforce our scenario that the Fed will likely wait until September to act Read full report here The May US employment report released on 3 June was clearly weak. Job creation surprised heavily on the downside (with downward revisions for the previous two months), and the unemployment rate fell, but for ‘bad’ reasons (a fall in the participation rate). Moreover, the pace of wage increases year over year did not pick up further and the proxy for...
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