Tag Archives: US employment

Latest nonfarm payroll report shows the ongoing resilience of the US economy, although some cyclical sectors are being affected by global headwinds.US employment rose by 196,00 in March, bringing the three-month average to a healthy 180,000/month— less than the 2018 average of 223,000, but more than in 2017.The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%, below the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ‘full employment’ estimate of 4.4%.Wage growth softened to 3.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) from 3.4% in...

But there is some softness at the microeconomic level.US employment rose by 155,000 in November (+1.7% year on year (y-o-y), decelerating from +237,000 in October. The three-month average dropped as well, but is still a healthy 170,000/month (it was 214,000 up to October 2018). November’s wage growth was unchanged from October’s pace of 3.1% y-o-y.Most cyclical indicators continue to flash green, and there are limited signs of a downturn in the US economy right now; the solid macro picture...

Fed officials compete to trumpet about the health of the US economy.We have long-highlighted how solid the US economy is, in-line with our ongoing scenario of 3% GDP growth for the year. That strong corporate investment is driving this offers still better news, given its potential to ultimately feed stronger productivity growth.Another positive lately is that US firms’ solid optimism about investment is coupled with strong hiring intentions. This is all the more striking given that hiring...

The July employment report confirmed that the US economy is in great shape, and still unaffected by international trade tensions.The US labour market remains in fine fettle, as the three-month average in job growth up to July was 224,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%, while the ‘broader’ unemployment rate (U6) fell to 7.5%, its lowest level since May 2001.Wage growth remained relatively tame (especially in light of the low unemployment rate), with average hourly earnings growth at...

The May nonfarm report shows the labour market remains in fine fettle, even though wage gains are still not broad based.The May employment report showed that the US labour market – and the US economy more broadly – remains in great shape, with non-farm payrolls growing by 223,000 last month. The 2018 year-to-date average, at 207,000, is above last year’s 182,000. This strength is reassuring news, especially given the erratic course of US trade policy. The US labour market’s strength was...

Solid US wage growth could lead to a more hawkish tone at the Federal Reserve.The January employment report showed that the US economy started 2018 on a strong footing, with particularly robust momentum in cyclical sectors such as construction and manufacturing. This supports our scenario that US growth will step up to 3% in 2018, from 2.3% in 2017, driven by an uptick in investment. With January’s increase of 200,000, the 3-month average growth in payrolls stands at 192,000/month, well...

The November employment report showed another ‘Goldilocks’ set of conditions for investors: employment growth remained firm, especially in cyclical sectors like manufacturing and construction. At the same time, wage growth stayed soft – which means the Federal Reserve is unlikely to shift its current prudent communication on interest -rate hikes (although it is still very likely to hike 25bps on 13 December)....

But latest employment report shows the US economy remains in fine fettle. The November employment report revealed another ‘Goldilocks’ set of conditions for investors: employment growth remained firm, especially in cyclical sectors like manufacturing and construction. At the same time, wage growth stayed soft – which means the Federal Reserve is unlikely to shift its current prudent communication on interest-rate hikes (although it is still very...

US average hourly earnings data were slightly disappointing in April, but the non-farm payroll figure was robust and the unemployment rate continued to decline.Non-farm payroll employment rose by a solid 211,000 in April, above consensus expectations.Unexpectedly, the US unemployment rate continued to fall from 4.5% in March to 4.4% in April, and is now significantly below the Fed’s median estimate for full employment (4.8%).However, wage data were somewhat disappointing, with the pace of...

Job metrics continue to improve in the US, but our GDP estimate for this year remains unchanged.February’s US non-farm payroll figure was strong (although partly due to temporary factors and unusually mild weather), with non-farm payrolls rising 235,000, above expectations. Other data in the February employment report were also upbeat. The US unemployment rate fell back from 4.8% to 4.7% in February, slightly below the Fed median estimate for full employment (4.8%). And the U6 measure of...