Stop me if you’ve heard this before: About US$275 billion (about SDR 193 billion) of the new allocation will go to emerging markets and developing countries, including low-income countries. This from the IMF’s July 30, 2021, statement gleefully announcing its governing body(ies) has(d) agreed to a general allocation of $650 billion in SDR’s, biggest in history, according to existing quotas. The purpose: “to boost existing liquidity.” This really does sounds very...
Read More »FX Daily, March 18: Dovish Fed but Yields Rise, Helping the Greenback Recover from Yesterday’s Slide
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.17% to 1.1068 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, March 18(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Asia Pacific equities mostly advanced after the US benchmarks recovered following the dovish FOMC. Australia, New Zealand, and India did not participate in today’s gains. European bourses edged higher, but US shares are struggling, and the NASDAQ futures are off nearly 1%, threatening...
Read More »FX Daily, February 26: Fed Hike Ideas Give the Beleaguered Greenback Support
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.31% to 1.0977 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, February 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Overview: A poor seven-year note auction and ideas that the first Fed hike can come as early as the end of next year spurred a steep sell-off in bonds and equities. Technical factors like the triggering of stops losses, large selling in the futures market, which some also link to hedging of mortgage...
Read More »What to Expect from the World Bank and IMF
The spring meetings of the World Bank and IMF will be held virtually this week amid a profound economic crisis spurred by a novel coronavirus. Unlike previous such viruses, this went global in such a destructive way that many countries have responded the same way. Encouraging social distancing, closing non-essential businesses, and enforcing lockdowns. The economic contraction that has begun is beyond what has been seen since the Great Depression. Even before the...
Read More »Inclusion in SDR Does Not Spur Official Demand for the Yuan
Summary: China’s share of global reserves is in line with expectations prior to its inclusion in the SDR. Three factors influencing allocated reserves – valuation, portfolio decisions, and China’s gradual inclusion in allocated reserves. The Swiss franc’s as a reserve asset diminished, but the “other” category appeared robust. The inclusion of the Chinese yuan in the SDR basket at the start of Q4 16 did not...
Read More »IMF’s Reserve Data: Dollar Share Little Changed, Yen Share Jumps, Helped By Valuation
Summary: The increase in the yen’s share of reserves was flattered by the yen’s 9% appreciation. The dollar and euro’s share of reserves were stable. Chinese integration has seen the share of unallocated reserves fall. Starting with Q3 data, (available end of March 2017) will break out the yuan’s share of reserves. The IMF provides the most authoritative data on central bank reserves. The composition is...
Read More »Yuan and Why
(I write a monthly column for a Chinese paper. Here is a draft of it) It is as if Hamlet, the confused prince of Denmark, has taken up residence in Beijing. The famed-prince wrestled with “seeming” and “being”. So are Chinese officials. They seem to be relaxing their control over financial markets but are they really? Are they tolerating market forces because they approve what they are doing, such as driving interest...
Read More »SDR Does Not Stand for Secret Dollar Replacement
At the IMF/World Bank meetings this week, Chinese officials are again pushing for greater use of the IMF’s unit of account, Special Drawing Rights. It is China’s turn as the rotating host of the G20, which gives it greater influence over its agenda. For its part, the IMF is concerned about global financial stability and must be open-minded. It wants to strengthen the financial system. It is only prudent to examine all reform ideas. Last September, the IMF agreed to include the yuan...
Read More »Reserved: What Next for the Renminbi?
On November 30, the International Monetary Fund invited the renminbi to join the pound, euro, U.S. dollar, and yen in an exclusive club of international reserve currencies starting in October 2016. China has been working to make its currency a credible global player for at least two decades, and the nod from the IMF is a significant symbolic victory. Still, don’t expect central banks to scoop up mass quantities of renminbi just yet. Central banks currently hold only about one percent...
Read More »