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Did US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin signal a change in the US dollar policy? Probably not. As Mnuchin and President Trump have done before, a distinction was drawn between short- and longer-term perspectives. In the short-term, a weaker dollar says Mnuchin, is good for US trade and “other opportunities”. In the longer-term, Mnuchin explicitly acknowledged, “the strength of the dollar is a reflection of the strength of the...

The Chinese economy ended 2017 on a strong note. In Q4 2017, China’s GDP amounted to Rmb23.4 trillion (about USD3.7 trillion), rising 1.6% over the previous quarter and 6.8% year-over-year (y-o-y) in real terms. Full-year GDP came in at Rmb82.7 trillion (about USD12.9 trillion), growing by 6.9% in real terms and beating the consensus forecast as well as our own estimate (both at 6.8%). The strong 2017 growth number...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.33% to 1.1624 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates It was dramatic.  Following the BOJ and ECB’s rather mild rebuke of dollar’s depreciation, US President Trump cautioned that his Treasury Secretary comments were taken out of context, and in ant event, he, the President ultimately favored...

Income inequality in Switzerland has remained stable according to a report published by Switzerland’s Federal Statistical Office. © Arturo Osorno _ Dreamstime.com - Click to enlarge A key measure of inequality involves dividing the income share of the top 20% by that of the bottom 20%, a measure known as S80/S20. 1 is complete equality. In 2015, the latest figure, the S80/S20 for Switzerland was 38.2, which means the...

– Davos elite hear warnings of complacency akin to 2007 as economic risks grow – Toxic mix of infallible belief, arrogance, megalomania and economic ignorance – Some express concern economies are vulnerable due to imbalances, trade, geo-political tensions– Soros: Trump creating ‘mafia state’ & ‘set on a course towards nuclear war’ with N Korea– Bond bear market, rising interest rates and massive $233 trillion...

One of the major rivalries in the US is that between California and Texas, the country’s biggest and second-biggest states respectively in GDP terms. They have different growth drivers (most notably Silicon Valley in California and the energy industry in Texas), and they also have different political landscapes – and local taxation regimes. But which one’s ahead when it comes to employment growth? The two states were...

The economy no longer generates secure, purposeful jobs for the working class, and so millions of people live in a state of insecure despair. The opioid epidemic is generating a lot of media coverage and hand-wringing, but few if any solutions, and this is predictable: if you don’t face up to the causes, then you can’t solve the problem. America is steadfastly avoiding looking at the causes of the opioid crisis, which...

Trade Deficit with China Widens on Trump’s Watch  Most things come easier said than done.  Take President Trump’s posture on trade with China. Trump doesn’t want a bigger trade deficit with China.  He wants a smaller trade deficit with China.  In fact, reducing the trade deficit with China is one of Trump’s promises to Make America Great Again. Photo credit: Jonathan Ernst / Reuters - Click to enlarge We are often...

The flash composite Purchasing Managers’ index for the euro area increased to 58.6 in January from 58.1 in December, above consensus expectations (57.9).  The services sector index rose, offsetting the decline in the manufacturing index . Companies also expressed growing optimism about this year’s outlook, with business expectations up to an eight-month high. The only piece of less positive news was a modest drop in...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.62% to 1.1703 CHF. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge GBP/CHF in Detail Sterling has made consistent gains against the Swiss Franc over the last week and now sits at a yearly high of 1.34. These gains can be attributed predominantly due to an extremely optimistic UK growth forecast from Lord Jim...