Tag Archives: newsletter

  Stars in the Night Sky The U.S. stock market’s recent zigs and zags have provoked much squawking and screeching.  Wall Street pros, private money managers, and Millennial index fund enthusiasts all find themselves on the wrong side of the market’s swift movements.  Even the best and brightest can’t escape President Trump’s tweet precipitated short squeezes. The short-term significance of the DJIA’s 8 percent decline...

There is some hope among those viewing bad news as good news. In China, where alarms are currently sounding the loudest, next week begins the plenary session for the State Council and its working groups. For several days, Communist authorities will weigh all the relevant factors, as they see them, and will then come up with the broad strokes for economic policy in the coming year (2019). We won’t know the full details...

This morning the Swiss National Bank have left interest rates on hold at 0.75%, and market reaction between GBP/CHF has been limited. The Swiss Franc has rallied slightly against the US dollar and the Euro as forecasters were suggesting the SNB could cut interest rates further, however the events last night in the UK I believe outweighs the interest rate decision in Switzerland. GBP/CHF rates: Pound rallies against...

First rate hike still expected in September 2019, although downside risks are growing. The ECB kept its key rates unchanged (i.e. the main refinancing at 0.00%; the marginal lending facility rate at 0.25% and the deposit rate at -0.4%), in line with consensus. The ECB’s forward guidance on interest rates was kept unchanged. The ECB expects its policy rates to “remain at their present levels at least through the summer...

The environment will remain challenging for EM currencies next year. Despite a dovish shift by the Fed and the temporary truce in the US-Chinese trade dispute, the global environment remains challenging for emerging market (EM) currencies. In fact, our latest EM FX scorecard, which ranks 10 EM currencies according to key criteria such as growth and vulnerability to external shocks, is still unable to identify a single...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.31% at 1.1258 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 14(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.bg - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview:  A string of disappointing economic is spurring risk-off sentiment today.  Global shares prices are being punished and core bonds are being snapped up.  The US dollar is trading higher against most major and emerging market...

Fresh inflation projections likely to keep the central bank on the path of prudence. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its monetary policy unchanged at its quarterly meeting today. The main policy rate was left at a record low (-0.75%) and the central bank reiterated its currency intervention pledge. Importantly, the SNB’s inflation forecasts for 2019 and 2020 were significantly revised down—another argument for the...

Even when labelled properly food labels provide precious little information on what a product might contain. © Tero Vesalainen | Dreamstime.com For example, a piece of farmed salmon will typically be labelled only with its country of origin, containing no information on what the fish has been fed. Contaminated fish feed can significantly push up the level of dioxins found in the fish’s fat. Mad cows disease is another...

If there is one thing Ben Bernanke got right, it was this. In 2009 during the worst of the worst monetary crisis in four generations, the Federal Reserve’s Chairman was asked in front of Congress if we all should be worried about zombies. Senator Bob Corker wasn’t talking about the literal undead, rather a scenario much like Japan where the financial system entered a period of sustained agony – leading to the same in...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.17% at 1.1275 . FX Rates Overview: There is a sense of optimism among investors today that may be tested as the session progresses. News that China may reconsider its “Made in China 2025” initiative as an apparent concession to the US while reports suggest it has bought 1.5-2.0 mln tons of soy is easing trade tension fears. UK Prime Minister May survived a vote of confidence...