Tag Archives: newsletter

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

© Patrik Slezák | Dreamstime.com On 16 October 2020, Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) reported 3,105 new cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection over 24 hours, bringing the reported weekly total to 14,054, a figure 135% higher than the week before. Swiss hospitals are admitting more Covid-19 patients. An additional 68 were admitted over the last 24 hours, according to FOPH. There are currently 515 Covid-19 patients in hospitals across Switzerland, according...

The world is currently in the midst of a newly aggressive drive to bring about a new socialist order through a powerful and “efficient” technocratic state. This new order has been labeled as “progressive,” but it is merely the latest version of the socialist impulse which we have seen before in the form of socialism and communism. A War on Private Property Summed up in a single sentence, the plans of the communists aim at the abolition of private property. From...

The Fed’s rigged-casino stock market will be dragged to the guillotine by one route or another. The belief that the Federal Reserve and its rigged-casino stock market are permanent and forever is touchingly naive. Never mind the existential crises just ahead; the financial “industry” (heh) projects unending returns of 7% per year, or is it 14% per year? Never mind the details, the Fed has our back and since the Fed is forever, so too will be the gains for everyone...

An individual’s demand is constrained by his production of goods. The more goods an individual produces, the more of other goods he can secure for himself. This Audio Mises Wire is generously sponsored by Christopher Condon. Narrated by Michael Stack. Original Article: “If We Want to Increase Demand in the Market, We Must First Increase Production“. You Might Also Like How Historians Changed the Meaning of...

Some are holding out hope but we think the stimulus package remains dead; Fed releases its Beige Book report Wednesday; there is a full slate of Fed speakers this week Fed manufacturing surveys for October will continue to roll out; weekly jobless claims will be reported Thursday; BOC releases results of its Q3 Business Outlook Survey Monday Renewed virus restrictions are weighing on the economic outlook for the eurozone; no wonder ECB officials are sounding very...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.04% to 1.0715 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview:  Investors have not let the surge of the virus or uncertainty over the UK-EU talks or US fiscal stimulus to stand in their way. Sterling is leading the major currencies higher, returning to the $1.30 area, while global equities are trading higher. In the Asia Pacific region, Chinese...

© David Moreno | Dreamstime.com On 18 October 2020, after an extraordinary meeting, Switzerland’s Federal Council announced masks would become mandatory across all of Switzerland. In addition, certain gatherings of more than 15 people are to be banned and employers are required to follow recommendations for staff to work from home. Since 19 June 2020, the governments of Switzerland’s cantons have played the lead role in combating the COVID-19 epidemic. Today, the...

© Marekusz | Dreamstime.com An updated forecast published this week by the Switzerland’s federal government is less negative than forecasters feared in the middle of the year. The new forecast expects Swiss GDP adjusted for sporting events to fall by 3.8% in 2020 and unemployment to average 3.2% across the year. The forecast in June 2020, predicted a 6.2% fall in GDP and average unemployment of 3.8%. After the relaxation of health policy measures, the Swiss economy...

Risk assets are coming off a tough week. The dollar was bid across the board except for the yen, which outperformed slightly. The only EM currencies to gain against the dollar were KRW and CLP. The major US equity indices somehow managed to eke out very modest gains but stock markets across Europe sank as the viral spread threatens to slam economic activity again. Yet we have seen time and time again that the safe haven bid for the dollar eventually gives way to...