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We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.22% to 1.0824 . FX Rates Overview: The prospects of a UK-EU deal and US stimulus continue to underwrite risk appetites and weigh on the dollar. Equity markets are moving higher. Led by Australia and China, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose to new record highs, while Dow Jones Stoxx 600 in Europe is at its best level since February. US shares are also trading higher. Bond markets are quiet, with European yields paring yesterday’s...

© Denis Linine | Dreamstime.com On 16 December 2020, Switzerland’s Council of States, the nation’s upper house, accepted a 2021 budget deeply in the red following its acceptance last week by the National Council. In 2021, Switzerland’s federal government plans to collect CHF 75.8 billion while spending CHF 81.9 billion, plunging the budget CHF 6.1 billion into the red. The pandemic has significantly increased spending. Spending in 2021 is expected to be 8.8% higher...

© Leigh Prather | Dreamstime.com Mistrust of vaccines against Covid-19 continues to rise in Switzerland, according to a recently published survey. A survey run in Switzerland at the end of October 2020, found that only 49% were prepared to take a Covid-19 vaccine, a percentage significantly lower than the 62% recorded in a similar survey in April 2020. Of the other 51%, 25% said they would not take a vaccine for Covid-19 and 26% said they did not know whether they...

Extremes become more extreme right up until they reverse, a reversal no one believes possible here in the waning days of 2020. The absolutely last thing anyone expects is a collapse of all the asset bubbles, i.e. a deflation of assets that reverses the full 20 years of bubble-utopia since 2000. The consensus is universal: assets will continue to loft ever higher, forever and ever, because the Fed has our back, i.e. central banks will create trillions out of thin...

In November, money supply growth rate was essentially unchanged from October and remains near September’s all-time high. The stabilization we find in money-supply growth in recent months comes after eight months of record-breaking growth in the US which came in the wake of unprecedented quantitative easing, central bank asset purchases, and various stimulus packages. Historically, the growth rate has never been higher than what we’ve seen this year, with the 1970s...

Switzerland ranks well on flexible working and good digital connections that allow people to work from home. Keystone / Jean-christophe Bott Switzerland is among the countries best equipped to withstand the effects of the global pandemic, although no nation has emerged unscathed, according to the World Economic Forum (WEF). The Alpine country does well on several of the indicators used in a WEF report released Wednesday in Geneva. Replacing its usual annual Global...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.26% to 1.0789 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The S&P 500 snapped a four-day downdraft helped by optimism over the progress toward fiscal stimulus and some hope that a new trade deal can still be negotiated between the UK and EU. Europe reported better than expected PMIs. Equities are broadly higher, as are interest rates,...

Dirk Niepelt ist der Direktor des Studienzentrums Gerzensee und Professor für Makroökonomie an der Universität Bern. Hier im Gespräch mit Geldcast-Host Fabio Canetg. swissinfo.ch Swissinfo, December 14, 2020. HTML, podcast. We talk about CBDC, the Swiss National Bank, whether CBDC would render it easier to implement helicopter drops, and how central bank profits should be distributed. Dirk Niepelt ist weltweit einer der führenden Forscher auf dem Gebiet der...

Before there could be “globally synchronized growth”, it had been plain old “global growth.” The former from 2017 appended the term “synchronized” to its latter 2014 forerunner in order to jazz it up. And it needed the additional rhetorical flourish due to the simple fact that in 2015 for all the stated promise of “global growth” it ended up meaning next to nothing in reality. Oddly the same for 2017’s update heading into 2018 and 2019. If currency wars are the...