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A few days ago, we wrote about a big silver crash. The price dropped around 7.5%. And the basis dropped from around 2% to 0.6%. At the end, we said: “The key question is: what is the follow-through? If the price stays down and the basis goes back up, that will be a bearish signal. If the basis stays down, that means the silver market is markedly tighter at $24.50 than it was at $26.75.” Which this brings us to yesterday’s silver dive. Here’s the graph of the day’s...

Carter vs. Reagan Presidential campaigns in the United States tend to be discouraging affairs, even if one is not a libertarian who has zero expectations that anything good can come from American elections. The old saw that insanity consists of doing the same thing repeatedly and somehow expecting different results applies to presidential campaigns as well as to anything else. For whatever reason, Americans (and especially the American media) seem to believe that the...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.07% to 1.0779 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 24(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The two recent market developments, push lower in stocks, and higher in the dollar is continuing. Tuesday’s gains in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ were unwound on Wednesday and this is helping drag global markets lower. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell for the fourth consecutive...

The federal government will have more power to approve vaccines and treatments for Covid-19. Keystone / Peter Klaunzer Measures put in place by the federal government to help manage the coronavirus crisis can be officially extended thanks to a decision by parliament. On March 13, the federal government assumed some executive powers that allowed it to enact certain laws and measures to deal with the coronavirus pandemic. With the unanimous decision on Wednesday,...

The “take this job and shove it” exodus is silently gathering momentum. The exodus out of cities is getting a lot of attention, but the exodus that will unravel our economic and social orders is getting zero attention: the exodus from work. Like the exodus from troubled urban cores, the exodus from work has long-term, complex causes that the pandemic has accelerated. These are the core drivers of the exodus from work. 1. labor’s share of the economy has been in...

Anyone who follows Alhambra knows that we keep an eye on the dollar. It is a very important part of our process of identifying the economic environment. A rising dollar, when combined with a falling rate of growth, can be a lethal combination. That was the situation in March and of course during the financial crisis of 2008. So the recent rally is something that has got our attention. For now, though, we don’t see any significant stresses in the system that would...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.04% to 1.0769 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, September 23(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: A more stable tone is evident in the capital markets after the S&P 500, and NASDAQ rose more than one percent yesterday. Japan returned from a two-day holiday, and local shares slipped fractionally, while China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Australian shares rallied. India and...

Current Account Key figures: Current Account: Down 52.14% against Q2/2019 to 9.878 bn. CHF of which Goods Trade Balance: Minus 13.55% against Q2/2019 to 15.193 bn. of which the Services Balance: Minus 39.69% to 1.158 bn. of which Investment Income: Minus 70.07% to 3.012 bn. CHF. Current Account Switzerland Q2 2020(see more posts on Switzerland Balance of Payments, Switzerland Capital Account, Switzerland Current Account, Switzerland Financial Account, )...

Davos has hosted thousands of political, business and civil society leaders for 50 years. © Keystone / Christian Beutler The World Economic Forum’s (WEF) flagship summit may not take place in Davos next year, businesses in the alpine town have been warned. The pandemic had already forced organisers to postpone the event from its usual January slot to a potential early summer date. But hoteliers in Davos, the alpine resort that has hosted the global conference for the...

The dollar remains firm on continued safe haven flows but we still view this situation as temporary Fed Chair Powell appears before the House Financial Services Panel with Treasury Secretary Mnuchin; the text of Powell’s testimony was released already House Democrats plan to vote on a stopgap bill today; Fed manufacturing surveys for September will continue to roll out; Brazil COPOM minutes will be released UK CBI September industrial trends survey came in weak; BOE...