Tag Archives: newsletter

We expect the Turkish central bank (CBRT) to deliver a substantial rate hike at Thursday’s meeting but not as aggressive as consensus. Bloomberg’s median expectation is for a 475 bp hike. Our call is for a somewhat less aggressive move (perhaps around 400 bp) because the recent price action is likely to afford the new CBRT administration the confidence not to have to surprise on the upside. We think this makes sense. A large enough move to reaffirm the change of...

A big splurge in September, and then not much more in October. While it would be consistent for many to focus on the former, instead there is much about the latter which, for once, is feeding growing concerns. Retail sales, American consumer spending on goods, has been the one (outside of economically insignificant housing) bright spot since summer. If it succumbs to the slowdown every other economic account is displaying, that could only mean it really has been...

It was only after he entered politics that President Donald Trump began to fully grasp the bias, dishonesty, and fakeness that runs throughout the so-called mainstream media. But gold bugs and sound money advocates have long known to distrust the reporting of establishment news sources. Journalists’ anti-gold and anti-Trump biases converged this week as the Senate took up President Trump’s nomination of Judy Shelton to the Federal Reserve Board. Shelton, a fierce...

We do not like Purchasing Power or Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) as measurement for currencies. For us, the trade balance decides if a currency is overvalued. Only the trade balance can express productivity gains, while the REER assumes constant productivity in comparison to trade partners. Who has read Michael Pettis, knows that a rising trade surplus may also be caused by a higher savings rate while the trade partners decided to spend more. This is partially...

Swiss Franc The Euro is stable by 0.00% to 1.0796 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 19(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: News that the New York City was closing the schools to contain the virus sent stocks reeling in late North American dealings yesterday and spurred some profit-taking in the Asia Pacific and Europe. Equities in the Asia Pacific region were mostly lower, though China, South Korea, and...

The confidence that there will always be facilities and professionals to care for us is no longer realistic. I’ve covered the systemic problems of U.S. healthcare for over a decade, and as a result I’ve attracted numerous healthcare professionals as correspondents. I’ve been corresponding with some for almost 15 years, and this correspondence has given me a sobering education in the realities of our fully financialized (and thus hollowed-out) healthcare system....

The dollar continues to soften October retail sales will be the US data highlight; Fed manufacturing surveys for November have started to roll out; Republican Senator Alexander opposes Judy Shelton’s nomination to the Fed Newswires reported (again) that a Brexit deal is at hand; Hungary and Poland will veto the EU budget and recovery fund; ECB signaled that they are focused on asset purchases and long-term funding for the next round of stimulus; Hungary is expected...

Deaths because of and with Covid19 Over the last 48 hours, Switzerland’s Federal Office of Public Health (FOPH) reported a further 227 deaths among laboratory-confirmed Covid-19 cases, bringing the death toll to 1,654 since summer and 3,385 since the beginning of the year. Total Covid-19 deaths in Switzerland since the beginning of the pandemic have now reached 3,696 of which 3,385 were laboratory confirmed infections. Hospitalisations The are currently 543 Covid-19...

Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.01% to 1.0806 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 18(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: News that Tokyo will go to its highest alert as it faces a rising contagion snapped a 12-day rally in the Nikkei, but most bourses in the Asia Pacific region excluding Japan advanced, though Chinese equities were mixed. European equities are narrowly mixed as the Dow Jones Stoxx 600...

Few companies know where all of their products originate let alone the conditions for people producing or extracting them. Keystone / Nyein Chan Naing Big multinationals in Switzerland have been nearly unanimous in their rejection of an initiative to make companies more accountable for their actions abroad. What are they afraid of? In a letter released a couple weeks ago, several board members of major Swiss multinationals urged the Swiss to vote against the...