Tag Archives: newsletter

In the first quarter, there was some speculation that currency pegs either in the Middle East or Hong Kong were going to give way.  We argued that the pegs would in fact hold, and hold they have.  In fact, pressure on the Saudi and Hong Kong pegs have dissipated.  Since the end of last month, Denmark's peg against the euro (+/- 1% band) has come under pressure.   Indeed, the pressure is the most acute since January 2015.  When the Swiss abandoned the cap on the franc then, speculative...

The surging yen has been the main feature in the foreign exchange market in recent days, but its advancing streak has been stopped with today's setback.  The greenback traded briefly dipped below JPY107.70 in North America yesterday but has not been below JPY!08 today.  It is near JPY109 as NY dealers return to their posts.  Japanese officials may have ratcheted up their rhetoric a notch, but the ultimately it simply seems the yen buying dried up.  Either the demand at the beginning of...

08.04.2016 09:15  – FSO, Prices (0353-1603-50) Swiss Consumer Price Index in March 2016 Consumer prices increase by 0.3% Neuchâtel, 08.04.2016 (FSO) – The Swiss Consumer Price Index increased by 0.3% in March 2016 compared with the previous month, reaching 100.1 points (December 2015=100). Inflation was -0.9% in comparison with the same month in the previous year. These are the findings of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Download this press release (pdf, 129 KB) Bericht CD Bund...

This Great Graphic shows the results of the last three Wall Street Journal survey of business and academic economists on the outlook for Fed policy. The key take away is that despite all the talk and ink spilled on the shifting Fed stance and the split within the FOMC, economists views did not change much over the past month. In March, 76% of the economists expected the next hike in June.  In the April survey that was completed earlier this week found 75% expect a June hike.  Only one...

The yen's surge in recent days has captured the attention of investors and policymakers alike.    It is indeed unsettling and seems to run counter to the economic logic negative interest rates, which the BOJ surprised the market with at the end of January. Yet, if one thinks the market has gotten ahead of itself, perhaps picking  a top in the yen may not be prudent.  Entry levels are important but so is the stop.  It is not clear where one should put a stop if trying to pick a bottom to...

  No Return to Normal BALTIMORE – On Tuesday, the Dow sold off – down 133 points. Oil traded in the $36 range. And Donald J. Trump lost the Wisconsin primary to Ted Cruz. Overall, world stocks have held up well, despite cascading evidence of impending doom. U.S. corporate profits have been in decline since the second quarter of 2015. Globally, 36 corporate bond issues have defaulted so far this year – up from 25 during the same period of 2015. Economists at JPMorgan Chase put the U.S....

  BALTIMORE – On Tuesday, the Dow sold off – down 133 points. Oil traded in the $36 range. And Donald J. Trump lost the Wisconsin primary to Ted Cruz. Overall, world stocks have held up well, despite cascading evidence of impending doom. With higher rates, Yellen risks corporate profits and bond defaults U.S. corporate profits have been in decline since the second quarter of 2015. Globally, 36 corporate bond issues have defaulted so far this year – up from 25 during the same period of 2015....

Authored by Steve H. Hanke of the Johns Hopkins University. Follow him on Twitter @Steve_Hanke. Reportage in The Wall Street Journal on April 4th states that “A fund owned by China’s foreign-exchange regulator has been taking stakes in some of the country’s biggest banks, raising speculation that it may be a new member of the so-called ‘national team’ of investors the Chinese government unleashes to support its stock market.” Statists and interventionists around the world (read: `those who...

The main feature in the foreign exchange market continues to be the surge of the Japanese yen.  A convincing explanation of the yen's strength seems elusive.  Until last week, which means through the fiscal year-end last month, Japanese fund managers have been buying foreign bonds at a near-record pace.  Foreign investors, for their part, have been dumping Japanese shares.  The main buyers of the yen appeared to be speculators, wherein the futures markets, they have amassed a near-record...

07.04.2016 09:15  – FSO, Tourism (0353-1603-40) Statistics on tourist accommodation in February 2016 Overnight stays in February fall despite rise in domestic demand Neuchâtel, 07.04.2016 (FSO) – The Swiss hotel industry registered 3.1 million overnight stays in February 2016, which corresponds to a decrease of 1.3% (-41,000 overnight stays) compared with February 2015. Foreign visitors generated 1.5 million overnight stays, representing a decline of 5.3% (-84,000 overnight stays)....