Tag Archives: newsletter

Amid light news, the US dollar’s recent gains have pared slightly.    Attention turns to the US, were several Fed officials speak, October housing starts/permits will be released, and then later in the session, traders will peruse the minutes from last month's FOMC meeting.   The euro held Tuesday's low near $1.0630, and short-covering lifted the single currency to almost $1.07 before the bears showed their hand.   Similarly, after the JPY123.50 level was tested, the dollar pushed back,...

The EU is warning that Austria, Italy, and Lithuania are at risk of not achieving their 2016 budget goals.    It also warned Spain that is too may miss its target.  Nevertheless, the EU said there were no serious violations.  At the same time, the EU will exempt proven refugee spending from the budget scorecard.  In light of the attack on Paris, the EU's fiscal discipline faces a new challenge.  French President Hollande is arguing that the security pact trumps the stability pact.  France...

1.  In the Commitment of Traders reporting week ending November 10 covers the few days before the US employment data and a few days after.  Speculative participants made five significant (10k contracts or more) adjustments to gross positions in the currency futures.  The prior reporting period saw only three significant adjustments, and in growing gross short euro, yen, and Swiss franc positions. This week, four currencies, euro (+14 .7k contracts), yen (+16.7k contracts), Canadian...

In fiscal year 2014, which ended September 30 2014, the Federal government of the United States reported a cumulative deficit of US$484 billion, while the total debt outstanding increased by more than a trillion dollars. For fiscal year 2015, the difference was negligible because the US Treasury conducted so called emergency measures to adhere to the Congressional imposed debt ceiling. As soon as Congressional leaders agreed among themselves, the debt ceiling was raised and US debt...

In last week’s article, we explained how the yield curve could cause GDP to contract in The Yield Curve and GDP – a causal relationship. Some of our readers suggested the analysis was wrong on back of an outdated view of modern money creation. The critics claim modern banks are not dependent on central bank reserves to create additional money; citing a Bank of England article from 2014 (which we have been well aware of) [A] common misconception is that the central bank determines the...

Keith Weiner, chairman of the Gold Standard Institute United States, will be presenting in Zurich, this Wednesday, October 14 at 18.30. Title: Our Monetary System is Failing, and what we can do against it We hope that the Swiss National Bank will remain safe, during the collapse of the monetary system. We fear the collapse because money flows will direct towards Switzerland again and threaten the solvability of our central bank. Some background in English on the letter to Tsipras, in...

Over four years our association of supporters of Austrian Economics from Switzerland, Germany and Austria and helpful hands from all over the world expressed opposition against the CHF cap in in-numerous pages. Finally the SNB agreed to the wishes of Swiss consumers and gave up the cap that effectively represented a tax on consumption and extra-profits for companies and close friends of the central bank. Swiss Inflation Watch: Swiss inflation  As monetarists & Austrians we expect Swiss...

First week of February: Speculators are closing down their short positions on the euro– both against the dollar and against CHF. The carry trade is breaking down into a reverse carry trade. This leads to a strengthening of the euro versus CHF. Given that US data was better than expected, the speculative USD against CHF position should further augment. It was at 4600 contracts versus CHF.No SNB interventions: Sight deposits decreased slightly by 0.2 billion CHF, this implies that the SNB is...

Sehr geehrter Premierminister Alexis Tsipras, Zunächst herzlichen Glückwunsch zur neu gebildeten Regierung.Leider hat sich damit nicht viel geändert. Der Euro bietet seit langem Griechenland einen perversen Anreiz Geld zu leihen. Nun ist Ihr Land in der Schuldenfalle. Durch herkömmliche Mittel kann Griechenland nicht zurückzahlen. Je früher man diese einfache Tatsache anerkennt, desto besser. Die Troika droht die Kosten des Ausscheidens aus dem Euro zu maximieren. Sie kann den Zugang zu...

John Henry Smith of Grail Securities (Switzerland) shows that the financial markets have always been awash with its own brand of Sirens, who dolefully prophesied the complete collapse of whole economic systems. For him Pericles gave the best advice: “The key is not to predict the future, but to be prepared for it!” —————————————————————————————— In Homer’s Odyssey, the Sirens were dangerous and beautiful maidens, who irresistibly lured sailors with their enchanting, but sad, music and...