Tag Archives: newsletter

The US yield curve isn’t the only one on the precipice. There are any number of them that are getting attention for all the wrong reasons. At least those rationalizations provided by mainstream Economists and the central bankers they parrot. As noted yesterday, the UST 2s10s is now the most requested data out of FRED. It’s not just that the UST curve is askew, it’s more important given how many of them are. Look to our...

The winding down of the North’s summer provides a suitable time to consider not the near-term outlook, which many investors do on a daily basis, but to reflect on where we are heading down the road a bit. What will the next 18-24 months hold? Of course, we harbor no illusions of prescient vision and accept the hazards of the assignment and so should the reader. The effect of monetary tightening and fiscal stimulus...

Martin Hess, SBA chief economist, outlines the conditions for Swiss banks. (Keystone) Swiss banks are withstanding the pressure of ongoing headwinds, but real progress continues to be stalled by political and economic roadblocks, the Swiss Bankers Association (SBA) said on Thursday. Releasing its annual Banking Barometer, which measures the performance of the sector in 2017, the SBA found that aggregate profits (profits...

The only possible output of this system is extortion as a way of life. As the accompanying chart shows, productivity in the U.S. has been declining since the early 2000s. This trend mystifies economists, as the tremendous investments in software, robotics, networks and mobile computing would be expected to boost productivity, as these tools enable every individual who knows how to use them to produce more value. One...

Tensions between Rome and Brussels could lead to significant market volatility before an agreement is found. September will be a key month for gauging the Italian government’s budgetary plans for 2019. The government has communicated neither a precise timeline for implementing the measures announced in its ‘contract for government’ nor a precise cost analysis for these measures. In this contract, the governing...

Currently, home owners in Switzerland must pay tax on fictional rent, calculated based on a home’s size and location. At the same time home owners get to deduct mortgage interest and home maintenance costs from their taxable income. ©-Stefano-Ember-_-Dreamstime.com_ - Click to enlarge The system was designed to bring the taxation of home owners into line with that of renters. The logic is sound. Renters must pay rent...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.29% at 1.1275. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The dramatic price action seen yesterday among several emerging market currencies is eased today, but here at month-end, demand for risk-assets is tentative at best. The macro backdrop, including the increase in US core inflation, expectations...

Life is good. They could not have imagined what we have now, back in the dark ages. So I have never understood why people prep for a return to the dark ages. The only thing I can think of is that they don’t really picture what life is like. 14 hours a day of back-breaking labor to eke out a subsistence living. Subject to the risks of rain, sun, and insects. Prepping makes no sense to me. I don’t know if I would choose...

In August 2018, the KOF Economic Barometer fell slightly by 1.4 points to a new reading of 100.3. It thus now pints to a level that is only marginally above its long-term average. Accordingly, in the near future Swiss growth should hover around its average over the last ten years. In August 2018, the KOF Economic Barometer fell from 101.7 in the previous month (revised up from 101.1) by 1.4 points to a...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.40% at 1.1315. EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, August 30(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates The US dollar is mostly firmer, while global equities are softer and bonds little changed. The Turkish lira and South African rand remain under pressures. However, there does not appear to be an overall theme in today’s markets. Disappointing...