Tag Archives: newsletter

We are starting to get a better sense of what happened to turn everything so drastically in December. Not that we hadn’t suspected while it was all taking place, but more and more in January the economic data for the last couple months of 2018 backs up the market action. These were no speculators looking to break Jay Powell, probing for weakness in Mario Draghi’s resolve. There are real economic processes underneath....

Commodities as an Alternative Our readers are presumably following commodity prices. Commodities often provide an alternative to investing in stocks – and they have clearly discernible seasonal characteristics. Thus heating oil tends to be cheaper in the summer than during the heating season in winter, and wheat is typically more expensive before the harvest then thereafter. Precious metals are also subject to seasonal...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.32% at 1.1319 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 17(see more posts on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The capital markets remain relatively subdued as fresh trading incentives are awaited, including US corporate earnings. Some of the enthusiasm for risk-assets has diminished. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has stalled after...

Economic fundamentals should come back into focus, but politics still a factor. After a year when peripheral countries’ old demons made a reappearance, with, in particular, Italy’s public debt back in the spotlight, the focus should shift to economic fundamentals in 2019. Both the Spanish and Italian economies are set to slow down, although the situation is more serious in Italy. In both countries, the political...

Gold Holds Steady Over £1,000 – Increased Likelihood Of A Disorderly Brexit – Gold supported near $1,300/oz ahead of important British Brexit no-confidence vote – Gold is consolidating in range between $1,280 and $1,300/oz (over £1,000/oz and €1,100/oz) – A break of resistance at $1,300 will likely see gold rise rapidly in all currencies – Physical demand for gold coins and bars has picked up in the UK and Ireland,...

If we follow the logic and evidence presented in these seven points, we are forced to conclude that the fractures in France, Germany and the EU are widening by the day. When is a nation-state no longer a functional state? It’s an interesting question to ask of the European nation-states trapped in the devolving European Union. Longtime correspondent Mark G. recently posed seven indicators of dissolving national...

So far, Switzerland’s financial sector has escaped major cyber attacks unscathed according to the watchdog unit. The chief executive of the Swiss financial watchdog, Mark Branson, has called for the creation of a national cyber defence centre. In an interview with the SonntagsZeitung newspaper, Branson reiterated that Switzerland was lagging on safety standards behind other financial centres. Both the awareness and the...

How do business cycles end? In the US, conventional wisdom is that they are murdered by the Federal Reserve. It is too slow to raise rates and then goes too quickly. This view is espoused by numerous well-respected economists and policymakers. President Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve is anchored by such views. America’s ambivalence toward a central bank is around 200-year old. It was the Panic of 1893 that...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.14% at 1.1286 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: There is an eerie calm over in the capital market through the European morning today despite some ostensibly worrisome developments. While many, like ourselves, expect UK Prime Minister May to survive a vote of confidence, it hardly...

In a press release the Swiss National Bank explains that it grants access to … [fintechs] that make a significant contribution to the fulfilment of the SNB’s statutory tasks, and whose admission does not pose any major risks. Entities with fintech licences whose business model makes them significant participants in the area of Swiss franc payment transactions will therefore be granted access to the SIC system and to...