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Trade war stuff didn’t really hit the tape until several months into 2018. There were some noises about it back in January, but there was also a prominent liquidation in global markets in the same month. If the world’s economy hit a wall in that particular month, which is the more likely candidate for blame? We see it register in so many places. Canada, Europe, Brazil, etc. It does seem as if someone flipped a switch...

02.11.2018 – Turnover in the retail sector fell by 2.3% in nominal terms in September 2018 compared with the previous year. This is the sharpest decline since December 2016. Seasonally adjusted, nominal turnover fell by 1.6% compared with the previous month. These are provisional findings from the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Real turnover in the retail sector also adjusted for sales days and holidays fell by 2.7%...

SNB Trade War - Click to enlarge Die SNB befürchtet einen Handelskrieg, der in einen Währungskrieg münden und schliesslich zu einer grossen Depression führen könnte. Wir alle wissen, dass nach der grossen Depression der Weltkrieg kam. Die Ökonomen und Zentralbanker sind also aufs äusserste gefordert. Eine exakte ökonomische Analyse hat höchste Priorität. SNB-Chef Jordan sagte vorgestern vor der Volkswirtschaftlichen...

Strong wage growth should support the recovery of euro area inflation in the coming months. Euro area flash HICP rose from 2.1% year on year (y-o-y) in September to 2.2% in October, in line with expectations and the highest level since December 2012. Crucially, core inflation (HICP excluding energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) rebounded from 0.9% to 1.1% in October. Energy inflation rose to 10.6% y-o-y from 9.5% y-o-y in...

Once a business is established, there are many ongoing administrative tasks required by law. The main ones are covered in this article. The first few relate to employees and the rest to taxation and other essential administrative tasks. 1. Social insurance taxes Businesses that employ people, including independents, must pay social insurance taxes. These are administered by compensation funds and rates vary slightly by...

Why Eurodollars Might Be Key to the Market Sell-Off (Podcast) There’s a huge market out there that doesn’t get much attention: Eurodollars. These have nothing to do with the euro-dollar exchange rate. Instead, eurodollars are U.S. dollar-denominated deposits at foreign banks and overseas branches of American banks. They’re effectively a source of dollars that operates outside the control of the U.S., and have at...

Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.18% at 1.1425 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 01(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: It appears that month-end considerations deterred the dollar selling that the technical indicators warned was coming and as the new month starts, the dollar is offered. It is weaker against all the major currencies and most of the...

1 November 2018 – The consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% in October 2018 compared with the previous month, reaching 102.1 points (December 2015 = 100). Inflation was 1.1% compared with the same month of the previous year. These are the results of the Federal Statistical Office (FSO). The 0.2% increase compared with the previous month can be explained by several factors including rising prices for heating oil...

High-level distillation of the drivers of selected currencies. - Click to enlarge US Dollar Jobs data ahead of the weekend should recover after a storm depressed the September jobs growth. The base effect will allow earnings to show a strong year-over-year gain. The FOMC meets next week. A 25 bp rate hike in December remains the most likely scenario despite the heightened volatility in the stock market. With the...

“Angry masons from Neuchâtel” reads the sign. Following strikes in Ticino and Geneva earlier this month, 1,500 construction workers have continued the protest in French-speaking Switzerland. According to the labour unions, more than 1,500 workers from cantons Freiburg, Neuchâtel, Valais and Jura put their tools down on Tuesday. About 80% of construction sites in the canton of Neuchâtel were shut down – an impressive...