Tag Archives: global recession

Signs of a potential global recession are appearing, such as a fall in fixed investment and industrial production and a build-up in unwanted inventories. We are revising down our world growth forecast. The effects of a negative shock dating back to early 2018 are still being propagated throughout the world economy. Sentiment was the first to be hit, but there have been increasing signs of a marked slowdown in hard data...

Signs of a potential global recession are appearing, such as a fall in fixed investment and industrial production and a build-up in unwanted inventories. We are revising down our world growth forecast.The effects of a negative shock dating back to early 2018 are still being propagated throughout the world economy. Sentiment was the first to be hit, but there have been increasing signs of a marked slowdown in hard data as well. In particular, fixed investment in advanced economies plunged...

The escalation in trade tensions, the dimming of global growth prospects and a surge in US export capacity have pushed us to lower our oil forecasts. The recent plunge in prices suggests that oil is acting like a leading indicator of global economic growth, reflecting investors’ concerns that lasting trade disputes will dent future growth and risk pushing the world economy into recession. Business sentiment has been...

The escalation in trade tensions, the dimming of global growth prospects and a surge in US export capacity have pushed us to lower our oil forecasts.The recent plunge in prices suggests that oil is acting like a leading indicator of global economic growth, reflecting investors’ concerns that lasting trade disputes will dent future growth and risk pushing the world economy into recession.Business sentiment has been deteriorating for some time. By May, the world Purchasing Manager Index for...

The Bretton Woods system was intentionally set up to funnel monetary convertibility through official channels. The primary characteristic of any true gold standard is that any person who wishes can change paper claims into hard money. It was as much true in any one country as between those bound by the same legal framework (property). What might differ were the standards for satisfying those claims (“good delivery”...

The fact that China reported a small increase in official “reserves” for February 2017 is one of the least surprising results in all of finance. The gamma of those reserves is as predictable as the ticking clock of CNY, in no small part because what is behind the changes in those balances are the gears that lie behind face of the forex timepiece. Yet, each and every time the delta pushes positive there is the same...