Tag Archives: CPI

Overview: The selection of Scott Bessent, the hedge fund manager as next US Treasury Secretary was greeted euphorically in the capital markets:  one of their own and, arguably, like many of new economics team could have been picked in any Republican administration. Risk appetites have been animated. Still, we suspect market positioning may have led to an exaggerated response. The dollar has been sold. Stocks have bought. The euro is leading the G10 currencies...

Overview: Within hours of the US giving permission to Ukraine to use US weapons to strike Russian territory, which it did, Moscow announced a change it is nuclear doctrine that allow for the use of nuclear weapons against a conventionally armed adversary that is backed by nuclear powers. This follows on the heels of the failure of two telecom cables yesterday (Germany-Finland and Sweden-Lithuania). This escalation is roiling the capital markets. Bonds are rallying....

Overview: Shortly after the North American markets closed, before any results were known, the market jumped back into the "Trump trade," which it had pared on Tuesday. The dollar and US interest rates soared. The euro is the hardest hit among the G10 currencies today, off about 1.6% and the Canadian dollar, the best performer with about a 0.5% loss. Emerging market currencies have also been sold. The worst performer is the Mexican peso, which is off about 2.7%,...

Overview:   Japan will go to polls a little ahead of the US. And the US election still looks too close to call. Canada may be forced into snap elections if the Bloc Quebecois abandon's negotiating with the minority Liberal government as it has threatened to do at the end of the month. The UK's new Labour government is putting together its first budget to be delivered at the end of the month. Among the first tasks of the new French prime minister is submission of...

Overview: The US dollar is narrowly mixed on the last trading day of Q3 24. The Australian dollar, the G10 proxy for China, is leading the major currencies higher and reached its best level since February 2023 (~$0.6940). The yen and Swiss franc continue to trade heavily and are off 0.2%-0.25%. The euro firm and traded above $1.12 for the fifth time since late August but has failed to settle above there once. The soft inflation readings have boosted the chances of...

Overview: The US dollar is mostly firmer today ahead of what promises to be an eventful week. Sterling is bearing the brunt today, off a little less than half-of-a-cent as expectations creep up of a rate cut this week and Chancellor of the Exchequer Reeves plays up the poor state of public finances left by the Conservative government. Sterling (and the euro's) five- and 20-day moving averages have crossed. The yen is mostly within the pre-weekend range. Outside a of...

Overview:  The powerful yen short squeeze that has roiled the capital market this week has stalled today. It is the first day this week that the dollar has not fallen below the previous day's low and has risen, though slightly, above previous session's high. The Antipodeans and Scandis are trading with a firmer bias. The yen and Swiss franc are the only two G10 currencies that are not stronger today. The stability of the yen appears to have removed some of the...

Jury duty assignment prevents a more comprehensive note, but here is a snapshot. Overview: The failure of computer systems has disrupted airlines, banks, media companies, and the London Stock Exchange, ostensibly stemming from an update from a third-party software update, according to Microsoft. The dollar is trading with a firmer bias. The consolidation, we anticipated, appears to be morphing into a correction. Weaker than expected retail sales has driven sterling...

Jury duty assignment prevents a more comprehensive note, but here is a snapshot. Overview: The dollar is broadly lower, and stocks are under pressure. Comments by a Japanese official, which did not appear to break new ground, coupled with Trump's interview in BusinessWeek, where he was critical that Japan was benefiting from a weak yen, despite having apparently spent some $80 bln this year trying to stop it from falling, may have been the trigger. The dollar has...

Overview: The dollar is narrowly mixed against the G10 and emerging market currencies today. The euro is little changed, holding on to last week's gains, after the surprising French election results, where the focus shifts finding a prime minister that can carry a majority of the new and closely divided National Assembly. Despite firm underlying wage data, the Japanese yen has given back its initial gains, and the dollar is pushing back above JPY161 in the European...