Tag Archives: Contributions

CEPR Discussion Paper 15541, December 2020, with Martin Gonzalez-Eiras. PDF (local copy). We propose a flexible model of infectious dynamics with a single endogenous state variable and economic choices. We characterize equilibrium, optimal outcomes, static and dynamic externalities, and prove the following: (i) A lockdown generically is followed by policies to stimulate activity. (ii) Re-infection risk lowers the activity level chosen by the government early on and, for small static...

Finanz und Wirtschaft, December 9, 2020. PDF. Economic policy is not about GDP growth. It’s about welfare. Externalities are key. Infection externalities don’t go away by calling for responsible behavior. Infection externalities can turn positive. Keeping worthy companies or networks alive does not require government intervention, unless capital markets don’t work. To judge the right amount of burden sharing is beyond economics. But economics gives some clues: In an ideal world,...

The Economist discusses the risk of CBDC-induced bank disintermediation. Their summary of the 2019 paper by Markus Brunnermeier and myself: If people prefer CBDCS, however, the central bank could in effect pass their funds on to banks by lending to them at its policy interest rate. “The issuance of CBDC would simply render the central bank’s implicit lender-of-last-resort guarantee explicit,” wrote Markus Brunnermeier of Princeton University and Dirk Niepelt of Study Centre Gerzensee...

SUERF Webinar “CBDC: State of play, practical challenges, open issues” with Ulrich Bindseil (ECB) and Morten Bech (BIS). Moderated by Dirk Niepelt. December 4, 2020, 2 pm. Webinar website. Presentation by Morten Bech. Presentation by Ulrich Bindseil. CBDC = MM0GA.

CEPR Discussion Paper 15457, November 2020. PDF (local copy). We analyze policy in a two-tiered monetary system. Noncompetitive banks issue deposits while the central bank issues reserves and a retail CBDC. Monies differ with respect to operating costs and liquidity. We map the framework into a baseline business cycle model with “pseudo wedges” and derive optimal policy rules: Spreads satisfy modified Friedman rules and deposits must be taxed or subsidized. We generalize the...

Finanz und Wirtschaft, July 25, 2020. PDF. The Swiss National Bank—yes, the Swiss one—feels it must remind politicians of its independence. Parliamentarians from left to right (!) voice demands. To shrink the SNB’s balance sheet? No, for more central bank profits to be distributed sooner rather than later. I discuss misconceptions, possible motivations, and a constructive response. «The best way to defend the independence of a central bank is never to exercise it.»

Die Volkswirtschaft, 24 July 2020. PDF. Clarifying the connections between outright monetary financing, QE, the distribution of seignorage profits, the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy, and central bank independence. Abstract: Wenn Parlamentarier höhere Gewinnausschüttungen der Nationalbank fordern, Kritiker im Euroraum mehr «Quantitative Easing» oder Helikoptergeld verlangen und andere Stimmen monetäre Staatsfinanzierung monieren, dann steht die Beziehung zwischen...

VoxEU, June 22, 2020. HTML. Is macroeconomics useful? Of course. To make the point, academics must regain the interpretative high ground from market commentators. While it helps when policymakers understand fundamental macroeconomic concepts, it is equally important for the general public to grasp them. More, and how this relates to the new textbook, on VoxEU.

Discussion of Antonio Fatás’ chapter in Elena Carletti, Stijn Claessens, Antonio Fatás, Xavier Vives, The Bank Business Model in the Post-Covid-19 World, CEPR/IESE report, London, June 2020. PDF. Antonio’s chapter offers a rich overview of the dramatic changes in the world of money and banking that we have seen in recent years. I focus on two themes: the nature of money and how it relates to these developments, and the government’s response to the structural changes we observe. I...

VoxEU, June 5, 2020, with Martin Gonzalez-Eiras. HTML. A comparison of epidemiological models for use in economic analyses, based on the CEPR discussion paper.