Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.18% to 1.0997 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Equities in the Asia Pacific managed to mostly shrug off the drag of the losses in US equities yesterday. China and India could not escape the pull, but most other bourses were higher, led by Singapore and Hong Kong. It was the second consecutive week that the MSCI Asia Pacific Index...
Read More »FX Daily, November 21: Markets Hear What it Wants from China’s Chief Negotiator, but HK maybe New Obstacle
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.14% to 1.0984 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 21(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The strongest signs to date that even phase one of a US-China trade deal is proving elusive helped spur the risk-off mood that had already been emerging. The S&P 500 fell by the most in a month (~-0.40%) yesterday, closing the gap from last week we had noted was the risk, and...
Read More »The Real Boom Potential
For the last five years Larry Summers has called it secular stagnation. It’s the right general idea as far as the result, if totally wrong as to its cause. Alvin Hansen, who first coined the term and thought up the thesis in the thirties, was thoroughly disproved by the fifties. Some, perhaps many Economists today believe it was WWII which actually did the disproving. For many of them, it is the typical broken windows stuff. The war devastated Europe and much of the...
Read More »FX Daily, November 11: Dollar Consolidates and Equities Follow Asia Lower
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.23% to 1.0964 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 11(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Escalating violence in Hong Kong and the continued fall in Chinese producer prices weighed on equities in Asia Pacific trading. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has risen nearly 7% during the five-week rally and is off to a weak start this week. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell around 2.6%,...
Read More »The Sudden Need For A Trade Deal
Talk of trade deals is everywhere. Markets can’t get enough of it, even the here-to-fore pessimistic bond complex. Rates have backed up as a few whispers of BOND ROUT!!! reappear from their one-year slumber. If Trump broke the global economy, then his trade deal fixes it. There’s another way of looking at it, though. Why did the President go spoiling for trouble with China in 2018? I don’t mean to ask what his rationale was, more along the lines of, why 2018? Why...
Read More »FX Daily, November 8: Risk Appetites Satiated Ahead of the Weekend
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.06% to 1.0987 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 8(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The capital markets are consolidating the recent moves ahead of the weekend. Equities are paring this week’s gains, though the Nikkei, which was closed on Monday, extended its advance for the fourth consecutive session. Despite the profit-taking today, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index...
Read More »FX Daily, November 5: Animal Spirits Remain Animated
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.05% to 1.0994 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 5(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The prospects that the US-China deal could include some rolling back of existing US tariffs helped underpin risk appetites. After new record highs in the US S&P 500 and NASDAQ, Asia Pacific markets marched higher, and the MSCI Asia Pacific reached its highest level since August...
Read More »More Synchronized, More Downturn, Still Global
China was the world economy’s best hope in 2017. Like it was the only realistic chance to push out of the post-2008 doldrums, a malaise that has grown increasingly spasmatic and dangerous the longer it goes on. Communist authorities, some of them, anyway, reacted to Euro$ #3’s fallout early on in 2016 by dusting off their Keynes. A stimulus panic that turned out to be more panic than stimulus. China GDP, 2007-2019(see more posts on China Gross Domestic Product, )...
Read More »FX Daily, November 1: Dollar Remains on the Defensive Ahead of Jobs Report
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.24% to 1.1023 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 1(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: An unexpected increase in China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI helped lift Asia Pacific equities after the S&P 500 stumbled yesterday amid concerns that there will not be a phase 2 in US-China trade negotiations. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 4.3% in October, and with the help of...
Read More »FX Daily, October 31: No Good Deed Goes Unpunished
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.32% to 1.0993 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, October 31(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The equity and bond rally in North America yesterday carried over into today’s session. With some notable exceptions, like China, Taiwan, Australia, and Indonesia, most bourses in Asia Pacific and Europe traded higher. US shares are little changed in early Europe after the S&P...
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