For US importers, October is their month. And it makes perfect sense how it would be. With the Christmas season about to kick into full swing each and every November, the time for retailers to stock up in hearty anticipation is in the weeks beforehand. The goods, a good many future Christmas presents, find themselves in transit from all over the world during the month of October. For the Census Bureau’s trade data, that means this is the month that shines above...
Read More »FX Daily, December 4: Hope Springs Eternal
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.19% to 1.0957 . FX Rates Overview: The prospect of not just the failure of the US and China to resolve its trade dispute but a new escalation has sapped the confidence that had lifted equity benchmarks and the greenback. Led by more than a 1% decline in Tokyo (Nikkei), Hong Kong, and Australia, all the major markets in the Asia Pacific region fell. European shares, perhaps encouraged by an upward revision to the flash composite...
Read More »China widerlegt Montesquieu
Die Einbindung Chinas in den Welthandel hat die Demokratie im Land kaum gefördert. Das zeigt, dass Handel Gesellschaften nicht besänftigt. Türken und Uiguren protestieren in Istanbul gegen die Internierung von mehr als einer Million Uiguren in der chinesischen Provinz Xinjiang. Foto: Keystone Handel schafft offenere Gesellschaften, Demokratie und wirtschaftlichen Fortschritt: Solche Argumente gibt es bereits seit Jahrhunderten. Schon der Aufklärungsphilosoph...
Read More »Nothing Good From A Chinese Industrial Recession
October 2017 continues to show up as the most crucial month across a wide range of global economic data. In the mainstream telling, it should have been a very good thing, a hugely positive inflection. That was the time of true inflation hysteria around the globe, though it was always presented as a rationally-determined base case rather than the unsupported madness it really was. That was the month the real recovery was supposed to have started. Instead, we can...
Read More »FX Daily, November 27: In Search of New Incentives
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.01% to 1.0985 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The global capital markets are subdued. There have been few developments to induce activity. Even President Trump’s claims that the talks with China are in the “final throes” failed to excite. Equities are extending their advance. Bonds are little changed, and the dollar is mostly...
Read More »China’s Financial Stability: A Squeeze and a Strangle
I do get a big kick out of the way Communists over in China announce how they are dealing with their enormous problems especially as they may be getting worse. Each month, for example, the country’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will publish figures on retail sales or industrial production at record lows but in the opening paragraphs the text will be full of praise for how the economy is being handled. If you thought the Western media was liberal with the...
Read More »FX Daily, November 26: Some Are More Equal Than Others
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.08% to 1.0982 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 26(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Neither optimistic comments from Federal Reserve Chairman, that the economic glass is more than half full, nor a seemingly positive spin on the weekend fall calendar between Chinese and US officials have succeeded in deterring some profit-taking today. Most of the large markets in...
Read More »FX Daily, November 25: Hong Kong, China, and UK Election Hopes Fan Modest Risk-Taking
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.18% to 1.0997 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 25(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The combination of the victory of the pro-democracy movement in Hong Kong and an apparent concession by China on intellectual property rights is helping bolster risk appetites to start the week. Equities are higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng led Asia Pacific equities with a 1.5% gain,...
Read More »FX Weekly Preview: Is Conventional Wisdom Too Optimistic?
There have been three general issues that the macro-fundamental picture has revolved around this year: trade, growth, and Brexit. On all three counts, conventional wisdom seems unduly optimistic, and this may have helped dampen volatility. A series of signals suggest that the US and China remain far apart in trade negotiations. The US wants China to promise to increase agriculture imports from American farms to more than twice the 2017 peak. Not only is China...
Read More »FX Daily, November 22: Europe’s Flash PMI Disappoints and Hong Kong Shares Advance Ahead of Sunday’s Election
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.18% to 1.0997 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, November 22(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Equities in the Asia Pacific managed to mostly shrug off the drag of the losses in US equities yesterday. China and India could not escape the pull, but most other bourses were higher, led by Singapore and Hong Kong. It was the second consecutive week that the MSCI Asia Pacific Index...
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