Full liquidity returns to the markets gradually in the coming days, and the week ahead culminates with the US December employment report. The highlights include the service and composite PMI readings, and December eurozone and China’s CPI. The UK reports December PMIs, November GDP, and industrial output figures. While the economic reports may pose some headline risk, the course of events suggests investors will look past the data. How the economies perform in Q1 20...
Read More »FX Daily, January 02: Equities Start New Year with a Pop
Swiss Franc The Euro has fallen by 0.03% to 1.0845 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, January 2(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Equities have begun New Year like, well, last year, with most Asia Pacific markets advancing, led by more than 1% gains in China, Hong Kong, and Thailand. Only South Korea and Indonesian markets fell. In Europe, the Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up almost 1% in late morning turnover. US...
Read More »A Sour End To The 2010’s Doesn’t Have To Spoil The Entire 2020’s
It has been perhaps the most astonishing divergence in the first two decades of 21st century history. In late 2017, Western economic officials (mostly central bankers) were taking their victory laps. They took great pains to tell the world it was due to their profound wisdom, deep courage, and, most of all, determined patience, that they had been able to see their policies through to the light of day (no thanks to voters around the world). This set up the third...
Read More »The Turn
The year is winding down quietly, and the last week of 2019 is likely to be more of the same. The general mood of the market is quite different than a year ago. Then investors had marked down equities dramatically amid fears of what was perceived as a synchronized downturn. Now with additional monetary easing in the pipeline and renewed expansion of the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank’s balance sheets, risk appetites have been stoked. Previously, the notion...
Read More »FX Daily, December 27: Equities Rally While the Dollar Slumps into the Weekend
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.05% to 1.0893 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 27(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge Overview: Equities are finishing the holiday-shortened week on a firm note, encouraged by strong holiday internet sales in the US. Most markets in the Asia Pacific region advanced except China and Thailand, while Japanese markets were mixed after weak industrial output and retail sales. The MSCI Asia...
Read More »China Data: Something New, or Just The Latest Scheduled Acceleration?
The Chinese government was serious about imposing pollution controls on its vast stock of automobiles. The largest market in the world for cars and trucks, the net result of China’s “miracle” years of eurodollar-financed modernization, for the Chinese people living in its huge cities the non-economic costs are, unlike the air, immediately clear each and every day. A new set of relatively strict pollution controls was added in the second half of this year. As is...
Read More »FX Daily, December 16: China Data Surprises to the Upside while Europe’s Manufacturing PMI Disappoints
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.05% to 1.095 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 16(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: Despite better than expected Chinese data, and last week’s investor-friendly developments, Asia Pacific equities were mixed. Australia led the advancing bourses with a 1.6% gain, its largest for the year despite the government revising down growth and wages. China, Taiwan, and Indian...
Read More »Chinas Aufstieg zur digitalen Macht
Die Folgen des Handelsstreits sind weniger dramatisch als angenommen. Doch dieser führt zur zunehmenden Zweiteilung der Welt. We Chat statt Whatsapp, Huawei statt iPhone: China setzt die Politik der digitalen Autarkie fort. Foto: Reuters «Präsident Trumps Strafzölle gegen die wichtigsten Handelspartner haben einen Konflikt mit unabsehbaren Folgen ausgelöst.» Diese Zeile las man vor kurzem in der NZZ. Allgemein dient der Handelsstreit zwischen den USA und China heute...
Read More »If Trade Wars Couldn’t, Might Pig Wars Change Xi’s Mind?
Forget about trade wars, or even the eurodollar’s ever-present squeeze on China’s monetary system. For the Communist Chinese government, its first priority has been changed by unforeseen circumstances. At the worst possible time, food prices are skyrocketing. A country’s population will sit still for a great many injustices. From economic decay to corruption and rising authoritarianism, the line between back alley grumbling and open rebellion is usually a thick...
Read More »FX Daily, December 09: China’s Steps-Up Import Substitution Strategy while USMCA Comes Down to the Wire
Swiss Franc The Euro has risen by 0.05% to 1.0949 EUR/CHF and USD/CHF, December 9(see more posts on EUR/CHF, USD/CHF, ) Source: markets.ft.com - Click to enlarge FX Rates Overview: The important week is off to a slow start. While the MSCI Asia Pacific benchmark extended its gains for a third session, European and US shares are struggling. The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is consolidating its pre-weekend 1%+ rally, while US shares are trading heavier after rallying for...
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